Meituan's (HKG:3690) Share Price Could Signal Some Risk

When you see that almost half of the companies in the Hospitality industry in Hong Kong have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 1.7x, Meituan (HKG:3690) looks to be giving off some sell signals with its 3.2x P/S ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.

View our latest analysis for Meituan

What Does Meituan's Recent Performance Look Like?

Meituan certainly has been doing a good job lately as it's been growing revenue more than most other companies. It seems that many are expecting the strong revenue performance to persist, which has raised the P/S. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

Want the full picture on analyst estimates for the company? Then our free report on Meituan will help you uncover what's on the horizon.

How Is Meituan's Revenue Growth Trending?

Meituan's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver solid growth, and importantly, perform better than the industry.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew revenue by an impressive 23% last year. Pleasingly, revenue has also lifted 146% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the last 12 months of growth. Accordingly, shareholders would have definitely welcomed those medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the analysts covering the company suggest revenue should grow by 22% each year over the next three years. Meanwhile, the rest of the industry is forecast to expand by 36% per year, which is noticeably more attractive.

With this in consideration, we believe it doesn't make sense that Meituan's P/S is outpacing its industry peers. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

The Key Takeaway

Using the price-to-sales ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

Despite analysts forecasting some poorer-than-industry revenue growth figures for Meituan, this doesn't appear to be impacting the P/S in the slightest. When we see a weak revenue outlook, we suspect the share price faces a much greater risk of declining, bringing back down the P/S figures. At these price levels, investors should remain cautious, particularly if things don't improve.

Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Meituan that you should be aware of.

If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.