Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. Importantly, K2 F&B Holdings Limited (HKG:2108) does carry debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
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How Much Debt Does K2 F&B Holdings Carry?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of December 2022 K2 F&B Holdings had S$95.9m of debt, an increase on S$81.2m, over one year. However, because it has a cash reserve of S$6.93m, its net debt is less, at about S$89.0m.
A Look At K2 F&B Holdings' Liabilities
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that K2 F&B Holdings had liabilities of S$14.9m falling due within a year, and liabilities of S$98.3m due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had S$6.93m in cash and S$505.0k in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total S$105.8m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
This deficit casts a shadow over the S$31.2m company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. At the end of the day, K2 F&B Holdings would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
K2 F&B Holdings has a rather high debt to EBITDA ratio of 16.5 which suggests a meaningful debt load. However, its interest coverage of 2.6 is reasonably strong, which is a good sign. The good news is that K2 F&B Holdings improved its EBIT by 2.8% over the last twelve months, thus gradually reducing its debt levels relative to its earnings. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is K2 F&B Holdings's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Over the last three years, K2 F&B Holdings actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT. There's nothing better than incoming cash when it comes to staying in your lenders' good graces.
Our View
To be frank both K2 F&B Holdings's net debt to EBITDA and its track record of staying on top of its total liabilities make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But on the bright side, its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. Looking at the bigger picture, it seems clear to us that K2 F&B Holdings's use of debt is creating risks for the company. If all goes well, that should boost returns, but on the flip side, the risk of permanent capital loss is elevated by the debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. We've identified 4 warning signs with K2 F&B Holdings (at least 1 which doesn't sit too well with us) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About SEHK:2108
K2 F&B Holdings
An investment holding company, owns and operates food centers and food street in Singapore.
Good value with proven track record.