Fountain Set (Holdings) Limited's (HKG:420) 28% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up

Fountain Set (Holdings) Limited (HKG:420) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 28% gain in the last month alone. Unfortunately, the gains of the last month did little to right the losses of the last year with the stock still down 16% over that time.

Even after such a large jump in price, it's still not a stretch to say that Fountain Set (Holdings)'s price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.2x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the Luxury industry in Hong Kong, where the median P/S ratio is around 0.7x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/S without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.

See our latest analysis for Fountain Set (Holdings)

What Does Fountain Set (Holdings)'s Recent Performance Look Like?

For example, consider that Fountain Set (Holdings)'s financial performance has been poor lately as its revenue has been in decline. One possibility is that the P/S is moderate because investors think the company might still do enough to be in line with the broader industry in the near future. If you like the company, you'd at least be hoping this is the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Fountain Set (Holdings)'s earnings, revenue and cash flow.

How Is Fountain Set (Holdings)'s Revenue Growth Trending?

Fountain Set (Holdings)'s P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the industry.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 27% decrease to the company's top line. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 10% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 13% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term revenue decline into perspective.

With this in mind, we find it worrying that Fountain Set (Holdings)'s P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh on the share price eventually.

The Final Word

Fountain Set (Holdings) appears to be back in favour with a solid price jump bringing its P/S back in line with other companies in the industry Using the price-to-sales ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

We find it unexpected that Fountain Set (Holdings) trades at a P/S ratio that is comparable to the rest of the industry, despite experiencing declining revenues during the medium-term, while the industry as a whole is expected to grow. Even though it matches the industry, we're uncomfortable with the current P/S ratio, as this dismal revenue performance is unlikely to support a more positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.

Having said that, be aware Fountain Set (Holdings) is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis, and 1 of those is a bit unpleasant.

If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.