Prada S.p.A. (HKG:1913) Just Released Its Annual Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates

Investors in Prada S.p.A. (HKG:1913) had a good week, as its shares rose 5.9% to close at HK$62.00 following the release of its yearly results. The result was positive overall - although revenues of €4.7b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Prada surprised by delivering a statutory profit of €0.26 per share, modestly greater than expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Prada

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Prada's 17 analysts is for revenues of €5.13b in 2024. This reflects a meaningful 8.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to ascend 12% to €0.29. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €5.14b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.29 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of HK$63.95, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Prada, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at HK$74.73 and the most bearish at HK$42.21 per share. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2024 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 8.6% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 10% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 9.7% annually. It's clear that while Prada's revenue growth is expected to continue on its current trajectory, it's only expected to grow in line with the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Prada going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.