Prada (SEHK:1913) Valuation in Focus After 19th Quarter of Growth and Strong Miu Miu Sales

Prada (SEHK:1913) reported its nine-month 2025 sales, surpassing 4 billion euros and continuing a streak of growth for the nineteenth consecutive quarter. Miu Miu’s retail sales soared and offset softer performance from the flagship Prada brand.

See our latest analysis for Prada.

Prada’s latest nine-month sales update gave its shares a strong push, with a 6.44% jump in the latest trading session and a 5.12% gain over the past week. While year-to-date share price returns are still down over 21%, the three-year total shareholder return stands at an impressive 48%. This shows that, despite recent volatility and challenges in the luxury sector, long-term momentum for Prada remains encouraging as the group navigates shifting consumer demand and invests in future growth.

If this momentum sparks your curiosity, now is a great time to widen your search and discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership

With shares still trading at a notable discount compared to analyst targets, is Prada undervalued in spite of recent gains, or is the stock’s long-term growth already reflected in today’s price?

Most Popular Narrative: 20.1% Undervalued

Prada’s current share price stands noticeably below the collective fair value placed by the most widely followed narrative among analysts. This suggests real upside potential if their growth assumptions play out. Here is the fundamental driver behind that optimism, in the words of the leading consensus:

Prada's ongoing investment in new product collections, broadening price points and enhancing personalization (e.g. make-to-measure, bespoke in flagship stores) positions the group to capture growth from both affluent core clients and younger, aspirational demographics globally, supporting long-term revenue and gross margin expansion.

Read the complete narrative.

What is behind those high expectations? The narrative hinges on aggressive forecasts for profit margins, sustained market expansion, and a future earnings multiple that most luxury giants rarely achieve. Which financial leap justifies this bold upside? Dive into the numbers to find the engine powering this valuation.

Result: Fair Value of $61.64 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, sustained reliance on affluent tourism and the challenges of improving retail culture could threaten Prada’s growth outlook if market dynamics shift unexpectedly.

Find out about the key risks to this Prada narrative.

Another View: Valuation Based on Earnings Multiples

While analysts see Prada as undervalued, its current price-to-earnings ratio of 16.6 times is much higher than both the Hong Kong luxury industry average of 9.7 times and the fair ratio of 11.7 times. This gap suggests investors may be paying a premium for Prada’s growth outlook, which could add risk if the company falls short of expectations. The key question is whether Prada’s momentum will continue to justify this premium.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Prada Narrative

If you see the numbers differently or want to draw your own conclusions, it only takes a few minutes to craft a narrative that reflects your perspective. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Prada research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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