Prada Valuation

Is 1913 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 1913 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 1913 (HK$54.85) is trading above our estimate of fair value (HK$40.55)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 1913 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 1913?

Key metric: As 1913 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 1913. This is calculated by dividing 1913's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 1913's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	23.1x
Earnings	€749.36m
Market Cap	€17.31b

1913 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	3.8x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	14.3x
PEG Ratio	2.1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 1913's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 1913 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	14.6x
2020 ANTA Sports Products	15.6x	7.8%	HK$222.0b
2313 Shenzhou International Group Holdings	15.9x	12.8%	HK$91.7b
3998 Bosideng International Holdings	14.5x	12.6%	HK$47.9b
2331 Li Ning	12.5x	10.0%	HK$40.4b
1913 Prada	23.1x	10.9%	HK$140.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 1913 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.1x) compared to the peer average (14.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 1913's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Luxury Industry?

1 Company	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
8211 Zhejiang Yongan Rongtong Holdings	1x	n/a	US$5.46m

No more companies available in this PE range

1 Company		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 1913 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.1x) compared to the Hong Kong Luxury industry average (8.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 1913's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

1913 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	23.1x
Fair PE Ratio	12.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 1913 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 1913 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	HK$54.85	HK$66.84 +21.9%	9.1%	HK$77.31	HK$49.28	n/a	21
Nov ’25	HK$58.20	HK$68.50 +17.7%	9.8%	HK$79.88	HK$50.92	n/a	21
Oct ’25	HK$60.00	HK$67.45 +12.4%	9.1%	HK$77.31	HK$51.98	n/a	20
Sep ’25	HK$55.75	HK$70.37 +26.2%	9.0%	HK$80.91	HK$52.18	n/a	20
Aug ’25	HK$59.60	HK$68.84 +15.5%	9.1%	HK$79.01	HK$50.96	n/a	20
Jul ’25	HK$58.40	HK$69.46 +18.9%	7.0%	HK$78.37	HK$62.94	n/a	18
Jun ’25	HK$64.50	HK$69.02 +7.0%	8.4%	HK$77.54	HK$51.69	n/a	19
May ’25	HK$64.30	HK$67.95 +5.7%	8.5%	HK$76.45	HK$50.97	n/a	19
Apr ’25	HK$62.00	HK$63.94 +3.1%	12.1%	HK$74.73	HK$42.11	n/a	18
Mar ’25	HK$55.90	HK$57.04 +2.0%	14.8%	HK$70.18	HK$39.28	n/a	19
Feb ’25	HK$48.15	HK$57.36 +19.1%	14.2%	HK$74.31	HK$42.01	n/a	20
Jan ’25	HK$44.65	HK$60.03 +34.4%	13.4%	HK$75.42	HK$45.79	n/a	20
Dec ’24	HK$42.45	HK$59.45 +40.0%	13.5%	HK$74.50	HK$45.23	n/a	20
Nov ’24	HK$45.15	HK$60.02 +32.9%	13.1%	HK$72.47	HK$44.00	HK$58.20	20
Oct ’24	HK$46.10	HK$61.03 +32.4%	13.3%	HK$75.47	HK$44.61	HK$60.00	20
Sep ’24	HK$51.25	HK$66.44 +29.6%	11.0%	HK$76.85	HK$47.32	HK$55.75	20
Aug ’24	HK$55.00	HK$67.55 +22.8%	10.7%	HK$77.12	HK$47.92	HK$59.60	20
Jul ’24	HK$52.50	HK$67.39 +28.4%	12.4%	HK$78.34	HK$48.15	HK$58.40	20
Jun ’24	HK$51.95	HK$66.60 +28.2%	11.5%	HK$77.02	HK$47.34	HK$64.50	20
May ’24	HK$57.60	HK$65.31 +13.4%	13.6%	HK$79.27	HK$39.26	HK$64.30	20
Apr ’24	HK$55.65	HK$61.39 +10.3%	16.0%	HK$78.03	HK$38.65	HK$62.00	20
Mar ’24	HK$53.85	HK$56.86 +5.6%	13.5%	HK$75.40	HK$38.24	HK$55.90	21
Feb ’24	HK$50.00	HK$57.24 +14.5%	14.0%	HK$76.07	HK$39.17	HK$48.15	21
Jan ’24	HK$44.10	HK$56.11 +27.2%	14.7%	HK$75.91	HK$38.08	HK$44.65	21
Dec ’23	HK$42.85	HK$55.83 +30.3%	14.7%	HK$76.80	HK$38.87	HK$42.45	21
Nov ’23	HK$37.80	HK$53.97 +42.8%	15.2%	HK$75.93	HK$37.13	HK$45.15	20

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.