China State Construction International Holdings Limited (HKG:3311) Full-Year Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

It's been a good week for China State Construction International Holdings Limited (HKG:3311) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest full-year results, and the shares gained 3.5% to HK$9.10. China State Construction International Holdings reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of HK$114b and statutory earnings per share of HK$1.82, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for China State Construction International Holdings

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from China State Construction International Holdings' twelve analysts is for revenues of HK$127.5b in 2024. This would reflect a solid 12% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to swell 13% to HK$2.06. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of HK$129.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of HK$2.04 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of HK$12.44, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on China State Construction International Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at HK$15.00 and the most bearish at HK$9.80 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that China State Construction International Holdings' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 12% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 16% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 10% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like China State Construction International Holdings is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. The consensus price target held steady at HK$12.44, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on China State Construction International Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple China State Construction International Holdings analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for China State Construction International Holdings (of which 1 is concerning!) you should know about.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.