A Look At The Fair Value Of V.S. International Group Limited (HKG:1002)

Key Insights

• Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, V.S. International Group fair value estimate is HK$0.11
• V.S. International Group's HK$0.11 share price indicates it is trading at similar levels as its fair value estimate
• The average premium for V.S. International Group's competitorsis currently 587%

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of V.S. International Group Limited (HKG:1002) as an investment opportunity by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.

We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Check out our latest analysis for V.S. International Group

The Method

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions)	CN¥22.8m	CN¥20.6m	CN¥19.4m	CN¥18.7m	CN¥18.3m	CN¥18.2m	CN¥18.2m	CN¥18.3m	CN¥18.4m	CN¥18.6m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Est @ -14.03%	Est @ -9.28%	Est @ -5.96%	Est @ -3.63%	Est @ -2.00%	Est @ -0.86%	Est @ -0.06%	Est @ 0.50%	Est @ 0.89%	Est @ 1.16%
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 9.2%	CN¥20.8	CN¥17.3	CN¥14.9	CN¥13.2	CN¥11.8	CN¥10.7	CN¥9.8	CN¥9.0	CN¥8.4	CN¥7.7

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥124m

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.8%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 9.2%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₂ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥19m× (1 + 1.8%) ÷ (9.2%– 1.8%) = CN¥257m

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= CN¥257m÷ ( 1 + 9.2%)¹⁰= CN¥107m

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥231m. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of HK$0.1, the company appears about fair value at a 2.4% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

Important Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at V.S. International Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.058. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Next Steps:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For V.S. International Group, there are three additional factors you should explore:

1. Risks: For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for V.S. International Group (1 shouldn't be ignored!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
2. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
3. Other Environmentally-Friendly Companies: Concerned about the environment and think consumers will buy eco-friendly products more and more? Browse through our interactive list of companies that are thinking about a greener future to discover some stocks you may not have thought of!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SEHK every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.