Athens International Airport S.A. (ATH:AIA) Just Released Its Annual Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates

A week ago, Athens International Airport S.A. (ATH:AIA) came out with a strong set of annual numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. The company beat expectations with revenues of €665m arriving 2.6% ahead of forecasts. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) were €0.79, 4.8% ahead of estimates. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the eight analysts covering Athens International Airport, is for revenues of €647.0m in 2025. This implies a discernible 2.7% reduction in Athens International Airport's revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to decline 15% to €0.67 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €638.2m and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.67 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for Athens International Airport

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of €9.67, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Athens International Airport analyst has a price target of €10.50 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €8.40. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Athens International Airport is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 2.7% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 14% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 3.4% per year. It's pretty clear that Athens International Airport's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Athens International Airport's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €9.67, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Athens International Airport going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Athens International Airport is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 2 of those are significant...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.