Aegean Airlines (ATSE:AEGN) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of AEGN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

AEGN (€4.8) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (€5.84)

AEGN fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	2/6
Future Growth	5/6
Past Performance	2/6
Financial Health	3/6
Dividends	0/6

AEGN Stock Overview

Aegean Airlines S.A., an airline company, provides public airline transportation services in Greece and internationally.

Rewards

Trading at 17.8% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 60.97% per year

Became profitable this year

Risk Analysis

AEGN passed our risk checks.

Aegean Airlines Competitors

Piraeus Port Authority

ATSE:PPA

€387.5m

Autohellas

ATSE:OTOEL

€407.9m

Thessaloniki Port Authority Societe Anonyme

ATSE:OLTH

€248.0m

Chorus Aviation

TSX:CHR

CA$668.0m

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Aegean Airlines
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	€4.80
52 Week High	€6.35
52 Week Low	€4.54
Beta	2.02
1 Month Change	-6.80%
3 Month Change	-13.82%
1 Year Change	-9.09%
3 Year Change	-41.96%
5 Year Change	-44.12%
Change since IPO	-48.39%

Shareholder Returns

	AEGN	GR Airlines	GR Market
7D	-5.1%	-5.9%	-2.3%
1Y	-9.1%	-42.6%	-3.6%

Return vs Industry: AEGN exceeded the Greek Airlines industry which returned -41% over the past year.

Return vs Market: AEGN underperformed the Greek Market which returned -5% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is AEGN's price volatile compared to industry and market?
AEGN volatility
AEGN Average Weekly Movement	3.4%
Airlines Industry Average Movement	6.3%
Market Average Movement	5.0%
10% most volatile stocks in GR Market	7.0%
10% least volatile stocks in GR Market	3.1%

Stable Share Price: AEGN is less volatile than 75% of Greek stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 3% a week.

Volatility Over Time: AEGN's weekly volatility (3%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1988	2,445	Dimitrios Gerogiannis	https://www.aegeanair.com

Aegean Airlines S.A., an airline company, provides public airline transportation services in Greece and internationally. It transports passengers through scheduled flights, as well as cargo; and offers aviation applications, technical support, and ground handling aircraft services. The company also offers charter flights; and imports, markets, and leases aircraft and spare parts.

Aegean Airlines Fundamentals Summary

How do Aegean Airlines's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
AEGN fundamental statistics
Market Cap	€432.80m
Earnings (TTM)	€10.91m
Revenue (TTM)	€764.31m

39.7x

P/E Ratio

0.6x

P/S Ratio

Is AEGN overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
AEGN income statement (TTM)
Revenue	€764.31m
Cost of Revenue	€651.84m
Gross Profit	€112.47m
Other Expenses	€101.56m
Earnings	€10.91m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	0.12
Gross Margin	14.72%
Net Profit Margin	1.43%
Debt/Equity Ratio	156.4%

How did AEGN perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is AEGN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AEGN?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for AEGN. This is calculated by dividing AEGN's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is AEGN's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	€432.80m

AEGN key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	18x
PEG Ratio	0.7x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AEGN's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

AEGN PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for AEGN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	11.8x
PPA Piraeus Port Authority	10.5x	30.0%	€387.5m
OTOEL Autohellas	7.8x	n/a	€407.9m
OLTH Thessaloniki Port Authority Societe Anonyme	12.5x	n/a	€248.0m
CHR Chorus Aviation	16.5x	33.4%	CA$668.0m
AEGN Aegean Airlines	39.7x	61.0%	€432.8m

Forward PE

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AEGN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (39.7x) compared to the peer average (11.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AEGN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Airlines Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AEGN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (39.7x) compared to the Global Airlines industry average (15.3x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AEGN's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AEGN PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	39.7x
Fair PE Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate AEGN's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AEGN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AEGN (€4.8) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€5.84)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AEGN is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: AEGN is good value based on its PEG Ratio (0.7x)

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Future Growth

How is Aegean Airlines forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 3 analysts?

Future Growth Score

5/6

Future Growth Score 5/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

61.0%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: AEGN's forecast earnings growth (61% per year) is above the savings rate (2.6%).

Earnings vs Market: AEGN's earnings (61% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the Greek market (8.7% per year).

High Growth Earnings: AEGN's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: AEGN's revenue (18.7% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Greek market (6.7% per year).

High Growth Revenue: AEGN's revenue (18.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: AEGN's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (20.7%)

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Past Performance

How has Aegean Airlines performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

2/6

Past Performance Score 2/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-46.8%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: AEGN has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: AEGN became profitable in the past.

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: AEGN's earnings have declined by 46.8% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: AEGN has become profitable in the last year, making the earnings growth rate difficult to compare to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: AEGN has become profitable in the last year, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Airlines industry (61.1%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: AEGN's Return on Equity (5%) is considered low.

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Financial Health

How is Aegean Airlines's financial position?

Financial Health Score

3/6

Financial Health Score 3/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: AEGN's short term assets (€797.6M) exceed its short term liabilities (€568.1M).

Long Term Liabilities: AEGN's short term assets (€797.6M) do not cover its long term liabilities (€1.5B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: AEGN has more cash than its total debt.

Reducing Debt: AEGN's debt to equity ratio has increased from 1.6% to 156.4% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: AEGN's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (81.1%).

Interest Coverage: AEGN's interest payments on its debt are not well covered by EBIT (1.4x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Aegean Airlines's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

2.63%

Forecast Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate AEGN's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate AEGN's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if AEGN's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if AEGN's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: AEGN is not paying a notable dividend for the Greek market.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as AEGN has not reported any payouts.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

10.1yrs

Average board tenure

CEO

Dimitrios Gerogiannis

no data

Tenure

Mr. Dimitrios Gerogiannis serves as the Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director of Aegean Airlines S.A. Mr. Gerogiannis has been an Executive Director at Aegean Airlines S.A. since June 14, 2012.

Board Members

Experienced Board: AEGN's board of directors are seasoned and experienced ( 10.1 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: AEGN insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/07/04 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/07/04 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31