If You Had Bought National Express Group (LON:NEX) Stock A Year Ago, You Could Pocket A 75% Gain Today

By
Simply Wall St
Published
July 25, 2021
LSE:NEX
Source: Shutterstock

While National Express Group PLC (LON:NEX) shareholders are probably generally happy, the stock hasn't had particularly good run recently, with the share price falling 19% in the last quarter. But that doesn't change the reality that over twelve months the stock has done really well. In that time we've seen the stock easily surpass the market return, with a gain of 75%.

View our latest analysis for National Express Group

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

Over the last twelve months National Express Group went from profitable to unprofitable. While some may see this as temporary, we're a skeptical bunch, and so we're a little surprised to see the share price go up. It may be that the company has done well on other metrics.

National Express Group's revenue actually dropped 29% over last year. So using a snapshot of key business metrics doesn't give us a good picture of why the market is bidding up the stock.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
LSE:NEX Earnings and Revenue Growth July 25th 2021

This free interactive report on National Express Group's balance sheet strength is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that National Express Group shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 75% over the last year. Notably the five-year annualised TSR loss of 2% per year compares very unfavourably with the recent share price performance. We generally put more weight on the long term performance over the short term, but the recent improvement could hint at a (positive) inflection point within the business. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for National Express Group that you should be aware of before investing here.

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on GB exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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