BT Group plc (LON:BT.A) will increase its dividend on the 10th of September to £0.0576, which is 1.2% higher than last year's payment from the same period of £0.0569. Based on this payment, the dividend yield for the company will be 4.7%, which is fairly typical for the industry.
BT Group's Payment Could Potentially Have Solid Earnings Coverage
Unless the payments are sustainable, the dividend yield doesn't mean too much. The last payment made up 76% of earnings, but cash flows were much higher. In general, cash flows are more important than earnings, so we are comfortable that the dividend will be sustainable going forward, especially with so much cash left over for reinvestment.
Looking forward, earnings per share is forecast to rise by 69.9% over the next year. Under the assumption that the dividend will continue along recent trends, we think the payout ratio could be 42% which would be quite comfortable going to take the dividend forward.
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Dividend Volatility
While the company has been paying a dividend for a long time, it has cut the dividend at least once in the last 10 years. Since 2015, the annual payment back then was £0.124, compared to the most recent full-year payment of £0.0816. Doing the maths, this is a decline of about 4.1% per year. Generally, we don't like to see a dividend that has been declining over time as this can degrade shareholders' returns and indicate that the company may be running into problems.
Dividend Growth May Be Hard To Come By
Growing earnings per share could be a mitigating factor when considering the past fluctuations in the dividend. It's not great to see that BT Group's earnings per share has fallen at approximately 9.3% per year over the past five years. A modest decline in earnings isn't great, and it makes it quite unlikely that the dividend will grow in the future unless that trend can be reversed. Earnings are predicted to grow over the next year, but we would remain cautious until a track record of earnings growth is established.
In Summary
In summary, while it's always good to see the dividend being raised, we don't think BT Group's payments are rock solid. The payments haven't been particularly stable and we don't see huge growth potential, but with the dividend well covered by cash flows it could prove to be reliable over the short term. We would be a touch cautious of relying on this stock primarily for the dividend income.
Market movements attest to how highly valued a consistent dividend policy is compared to one which is more unpredictable. Meanwhile, despite the importance of dividend payments, they are not the only factors our readers should know when assessing a company. As an example, we've identified 3 warning signs for BT Group that you should be aware of before investing. Looking for more high-yielding dividend ideas? Try our collection of strong dividend payers.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.