The past three years for Kingfisher (LON:KGF) investors has not been profitable

For many investors, the main point of stock picking is to generate higher returns than the overall market. But in any portfolio, there are likely to be some stocks that fall short of that benchmark. We regret to report that long term Kingfisher plc (LON:KGF) shareholders have had that experience, with the share price dropping 23% in three years, versus a market return of about 19%. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 14% in the last 90 days.

Now let's have a look at the company's fundamentals, and see if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.

Check out our latest analysis for Kingfisher

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

Kingfisher saw its EPS decline at a compound rate of 21% per year, over the last three years. This fall in the EPS is worse than the 8% compound annual share price fall. This suggests that the market retains some optimism around long term earnings stability, despite past EPS declines.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

Dive deeper into Kingfisher's key metrics by checking this interactive graph of Kingfisher's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Kingfisher the TSR over the last 3 years was -11%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

Kingfisher's TSR for the year was broadly in line with the market average, at 19%. That gain looks pretty satisfying, and it is even better than the five-year TSR of 6% per year. It is possible that management foresight will bring growth well into the future, even if the share price slows down. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Kingfisher better, we need to consider many other factors. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Kingfisher , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

Of course Kingfisher may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on British exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.