Card Factory plc (LON:CARD) Might Not Be As Mispriced As It Looks After Plunging 26%

Card Factory plc (LON:CARD) shareholders won't be pleased to see that the share price has had a very rough month, dropping 26% and undoing the prior period's positive performance. Longer-term shareholders will rue the drop in the share price, since it's now virtually flat for the year after a promising few quarters.

In spite of the heavy fall in price, Card Factory's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 8x might still make it look like a strong buy right now compared to the market in the United Kingdom, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios above 17x and even P/E's above 30x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so limited.

Card Factory could be doing better as its earnings have been going backwards lately while most other companies have been seeing positive earnings growth. It seems that many are expecting the dour earnings performance to persist, which has repressed the P/E. If this is the case, then existing shareholders will probably struggle to get excited about the future direction of the share price.

Check out our latest analysis for Card Factory

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How Is Card Factory's Growth Trending?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as depressed as Card Factory's is when the company's growth is on track to lag the market decidedly.

If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 22%. This has erased any of its gains during the last three years, with practically no change in EPS being achieved in total. Therefore, it's fair to say that earnings growth has been inconsistent recently for the company.

Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to climb by 15% each year during the coming three years according to the eight analysts following the company. With the market predicted to deliver 14% growth per annum, the company is positioned for a comparable earnings result.

With this information, we find it odd that Card Factory is trading at a P/E lower than the market. Apparently some shareholders are doubtful of the forecasts and have been accepting lower selling prices.

The Key Takeaway

Card Factory's P/E looks about as weak as its stock price lately. While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

We've established that Card Factory currently trades on a lower than expected P/E since its forecast growth is in line with the wider market. There could be some unobserved threats to earnings preventing the P/E ratio from matching the outlook. It appears some are indeed anticipating earnings instability, because these conditions should normally provide more support to the share price.

Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Card Factory that you should be aware of.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.