Major Estimate Revision • May 21
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 13% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2026 has been updated. 2026 EPS estimate fell from UK£0.206 to UK£0.178 per share. Revenue forecast steady at UK£136.2m. Net income forecast to grow 24% next year vs 115% growth forecast for Residential REITs industry in the United Kingdom. Consensus price target down from UK£2.60 to UK£2.41. Share price fell 2.2% to UK£1.53 over the past week. Price Target Changed • May 20
Price target decreased by 7.4% to UK£2.41 Down from UK£2.60, the current price target is an average from 8 analysts. New target price is 54% above last closing price of UK£1.56. Stock is down 30% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of UK£0.18 for next year compared to UK£0.27 last year. Declared Dividend • May 17
First half dividend increased to UK£0.029 Dividend of UK£0.029 is 3.2% higher than last year. Ex-date: 21st May 2026 Payment date: 3rd July 2026 Dividend yield will be 5.6%, which is higher than the industry average of 4.5%. Announcement • May 16
Grainger plc Announces Interim Dividend for the Six Months Ended March 31, 2026, Payable on 3 July 2026 Grainger plc announced an interim dividend increasing by 3% to 2.94 pence on a per share basis for the six months ended March 31, 2026 (HY25: 2.85 pence) amounting to £21.7 Million (March 2025: £21.0 Million), all of which will be paid as a Property Income Distribution (PID), will be paid on 3 July 2026 to shareholders on the register at the close of business on 22 May 2026. Shareholders will again be offered the option to participate in a dividend re-investment plan and the last day for election is 12 June 2026 . Price Target Changed • May 14
Price target decreased by 7.1% to UK£2.45 Down from UK£2.64, the current price target is an average from 8 analysts. New target price is 56% above last closing price of UK£1.57. Stock is down 29% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of UK£0.18 for next year compared to UK£0.27 last year. Announcement • Apr 14
Grainger plc Announces Board and Committee Changes Grainger plc announced that Fiona Muldoon has been appointed to the Board as Non-Executive Director (NED) with effect from 15 April 2026. Fiona will succeed Justin Read as Senior Independent Director and as Chair of the Audit & Risk Committee when he retires from the Board after nine years on 18 June 2026. In addition to joining the Audit & Risk Committee, Fiona will also join the Board's Remuneration, Nominations and Responsible Business Committees. Fiona is a Chartered Accountant and a Fellow of the Institute of Chartered Accountants in Ireland. She has significant FTSE Board and C-Suite experience including in capital markets, risk, governance and sustainability. Fiona is currently on the Board of Beazley plc, the specialist insurance business, where she is the Risk Committee Chair, a member of the Audit Committee and Employee voice on the Board. She is also on the Board of Admiral Group plc, the international financial services group where she chairs the Audit Committee and is a member of the Risk Committee. Previously, Fiona was the CEO of FBD Holdings plc, a listed general insurer in Ireland (2015 to 2020) and a Director of Credit Institutions and Insurance Supervision at the Central Bank of Ireland, the Irish regulator. Her previous roles include 17 years with XL Group, and as a Non-Executive Director at the Bank of Ireland, where she served on all committees during her tenure and was chair of the Sustainability Committee. Announcement • Feb 10
Grainger plc to Report Fiscal Year 2026 Results on Nov 19, 2026 Grainger plc announced that they will report fiscal year 2026 results at 9:00 AM, Coordinated Universal Time on Nov 19, 2026 Announcement • Feb 04
Grainger plc to Report First Half, 2026 Results on May 14, 2026 Grainger plc announced that they will report first half, 2026 results on May 14, 2026 Board Change • Feb 01
Insufficient new directors There is 1 new director who has joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: 1 new director. 4 experienced directors. 3 highly experienced directors. Independent Non-Executive Director Simon William Fraser was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2025. The company’s insufficient board refreshment is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Announcement • Jan 29
Grainger plc Announces Construction Begins on Its Second BTR Scheme At Guildford Station Grainger plc announced that construction has commenced on its second BTR scheme at Guildford Station, delivering 179 new rental homes. This c.PS75 million investment is in line with Grainger's cluster strategy and adds 179 new homes to the 98 homes already delivered at The Mint, totaling 277 homes and over PS116m of investment in Guildford by Grainger. In partnership with Solum, a joint venture between Platform4 - Network Rail's property development company - and Kier Property, the regeneration at Guildford Station reinforces the potential for high-quality housing development adjacent to train stations and aligns with the Government's announcement in November 2025. This is the second project the partnership has delivered at Guildford, with excellent connectivity credentials, reflecting Grainger's strict investment criteria focused on assets with strong transport links to high employment zones. Earlier this week, Grainger's Chief Executive Helen Gordon joined the Housing Secretary, Steve Reed, and the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, at a roundtable with industry leaders to discuss the National Planning Policy Framework and the Planning and Infrastructure Act. The conversation focused on planning reform, infrastructure investment and partnership with the private sector. Construction commencing at Guildford Station reflects this shared focus on accelerating housing delivery through well-connected, station-led development. The scheme will benefit from the wider PS150m regeneration of the station quarter which includes PS25m of station improvements. These comprise a new double-height ticket office designed to accommodate future customer growth through to 2035, improved pedestrian routes to platforms and a new multi-storey car park - all of which enhance transport connectivity for the town. Construction is expected to complete in 2028, with leasing commencing thereafter, contributing to Grainger's earnings from FY28, in line with prior earnings guidance. Upcoming Dividend • Jan 08
Upcoming dividend of UK£0.055 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 15 January 2026. Payment date: 20 February 2026. Payout ratio is a comfortable 30% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 4.2%. Lower than top quartile of British dividend payers (5.5%). In line with average of industry peers (4.2%). Announcement • Dec 17
Grainger plc, Annual General Meeting, Feb 04, 2026 Grainger plc, Annual General Meeting, Feb 04, 2026. Location: citygate, st james boulevard, newcastle upon tyne, ne1 4je, United Kingdom Major Estimate Revision • Nov 27
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 13% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2026 has improved. 2026 revenue forecast increased from UK£134.5m to UK£139.8m. EPS estimate increased from UK£0.213 to UK£0.24 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 19% next year vs 17% growth forecast for Real Estate industry in the United Kingdom . Consensus price target broadly unchanged at UK£2.71. Share price rose 3.2% to UK£1.86 over the past week. Declared Dividend • Nov 23
Final dividend increased to UK£0.055 Dividend of UK£0.055 is 9.0% higher than last year. Ex-date: 15th January 2026 Payment date: 20th February 2026 Dividend yield will be 4.5%, which is higher than the industry average of 3.8%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by both earnings (25% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (50% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 13% per year over the past 10 years and has been stable with no material reductions to payments, indicating a long track record of dividend growth and stability. EPS is expected to grow by 1.5% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Reported Earnings • Nov 21
Full year 2025 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind Full year 2025 results: EPS: UK£0.27 (up from UK£0.042 in FY 2024). Revenue: UK£129.7m (down 55% from FY 2024). Net income: UK£202.6m (up UK£171.4m from FY 2024). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.3%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 51%. Revenue is forecast to grow 5.2% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Real Estate industry in the United Kingdom are expected to remain flat. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 13% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 9% per year. Announcement • Jul 31
Grainger plc Announces Board Changes Grainger plc announced that Simon Fraser has been appointed to the Board as Non-Executive Director and Chair Designate to succeed Mark Clare, whose nine year tenure as Chair will be concluding in February 2026, at the Company's next Annual General Meeting ("AGM"). Simon is being appointed as an independent Non-Executive Director with effect from 1 October 2025 and will also join the Board's Committees, enabling an orderly handover prior to Mark's departure. Simon will stand for election at the 2026 AGM and, if elected, will move into the role of Chair of the Board and Nominations Committee with effect from the end of the 2026 AGM. Simon brings substantial real estate and investment experience and more than 13 years of FTSE Board experience with two prominent REITs ("Real Estate Investment Trust"), SEGRO plc and Derwent London plc. He is currently Chair of the Remuneration Committee at SEGRO plc, and Senior Independent Director at St James's Place plc. Between 2015 to 2021, Simon was Senior Independent Director at Derwent London Plc. He was also on the Board of Legal & General Investment Management from 2015 to 2024 and Lancashire Holdings Ltd. from 2013 to 2023. Simon also brings a wealth of experience in the global capital markets from a long, successful career in investment banking and corporate broking, advising a wide range of clients across numerous sectors, including many consumer facing businesses. Prior to his retirement from executive roles in 2011, Simon worked at Bank of America Merrill Lynch where he was Managing Director and Co-Head of Corporate Broking. Announcement • Jun 25
Grainger plc Announces Practical Completion of the Third Phase at Fortunes Dock Cluster in Canning Town, Seraphina Apartments Grainger plc announced the practical completion of the third phase at Grainger's Fortunes Dock cluster in Canning Town, Seraphina Apartments, which comprises 132 high quality BTR homes. This marks a significant milestone in the transformation of Fortunes Dock, Grainger's residential destination in East London, which now totals 412 homes across three schemes. Seraphina Apartments builds on the success of the two existing developments Nautilus Apartments and Argo Apartments, bringing the number of homes at Fortunes Dock to 412 homes and total investment by Grainger into Canning Town to c.PS152 million. Grainger's investment in East London strengthens its strategy of developing clusters, with multiple schemes in close proximity, enhancing operational efficiencies, strengthening brand visibility, and providing a deeper understanding of local customer preferences. This cluster approach has proven successful, with developments such as Millwrights Place, Grainger's second scheme in Bristol, reaching stabilisation at 95% lease-up in under a year. Seraphina Apartments is named in tribute to vessels built by Thames Ironworks and Ship Building Ltd, operating out of Canning Town, from 1835 until 1912. It reflects the heritage of this new, growing community, bringing modern homes, thoughtful design and standout amenities to London renters. Additional amenities include a games room, a fully equipped gym and wellness space, as well as a landscaped podium garden and a rooftop terrace. Following practical completion of the main build of Seraphina Apartments, fit out will now commence of the amenity spaces. Set to launch later this summer, Seraphina Apartments will provide high-quality rental homes in a thoughtfully designed setting, continuing the success of Grainger's established neighbouring schemes in Fortunes Dock. New Risk • Jun 24
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings have declined by 13% per year over the past 5 years. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are declining over an extended period, then in most cases the share price will decline over time unless the company can turn around its fortunes. A trend of falling earnings can be very difficult to turn around. If the company is well already established it may also be a sign the company has matured and is in decline. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (11% operating cash flow to total debt). Earnings have declined by 13% per year over the past 5 years. Minor Risk Large one-off items impacting financial results. Recent Insider Transactions Derivative • Jun 08
CEO & Executive Director exercised options and sold UK£343k worth of stock On the 4th of June, Helen Gordon exercised options to acquire 160k shares at no cost and sold these for an average price of UK£2.15 per share. This trade did not impact their existing holding. For the year to September 2018, Helen's total compensation was 32% salary and 68% other compensation. This indicates that these sales could comprise a meaningful part of their income for the year. Since September 2024, Helen's direct individual holding has increased from 595.08k shares to 662.92k. Company insiders have collectively sold UK£730k more than they bought, via options and on-market transactions in the last 12 months. Declared Dividend • May 18
First half dividend increased to UK£0.029 Dividend of UK£0.029 is 12% higher than last year. Ex-date: 22nd May 2025 Payment date: 7th July 2025 Dividend yield will be 3.5%, which is lower than the industry average of 3.8%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by both earnings (53% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (34% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 14% per year over the past 10 years and has been stable with no material reductions to payments, indicating a long track record of dividend growth and stability. EPS is expected to decline by 3.9% over the next 3 years. However, it would need to fall by 41% to increase the payout ratio to a potentially unsustainable range. Reported Earnings • May 16
First half 2025 earnings released: EPS: UK£0.075 (vs UK£0.03 loss in 1H 2024) First half 2025 results: EPS: UK£0.075 (up from UK£0.03 loss in 1H 2024). Revenue: UK£136.4m (up 20% from 1H 2024). Net income: UK£55.4m (up UK£77.4m from 1H 2024). Profit margin: 41% (up from net loss in 1H 2024). Revenue is forecast to decline by 28% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Real Estate industry in the United Kingdom are expected to remain flat. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 58% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 9% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Announcement • May 16
Grainger plc Announces an Interim Dividend Grainger plc has announced an interim dividend of 2.85 pence (March 2024: 2.54 pence) per share which will return £21.0 million (March 2024: £18.8 million) of cash to shareholders. Announcement • May 02
Grainger Announces Appointment of Melanie Tinto as Senior Vice President, Chief Human Resources Officer, Effective April 28 Grainger announced the appointment of Melanie Tinto as Senior Vice President, Chief Human Resources Officer (CHRO), effective April 28. With this appointment, she will join the Grainger Leadership Team and oversee HR strategy and operations, including talent management, succession planning, compensation, organizational performance and benefits. Melanie joins Grainger from WEX, a financial technology solutions provider, where she served as CHRO. During her tenure, Melanie helped transform WEX's HR function into a strategic business partner, focusing on developing high-performing teams and integrating technology to improve operations. Prior to joining WEX, Melanie served as Vice President of Global Talent Acquisition and Chief Learning Officer at Medtronic, and previously held leadership roles at Hewlett-Packard, Walmart and Bank of America.Throughout her 30 years in the HR field, Melanie has demonstrated an innate ability to align people strategies with business objectives. Outside of work, Melanie enjoys spending time with her family and is active in her community. She will relocate to the Chicago area from Maine later this year. Upcoming Dividend • Jan 09
Upcoming dividend of UK£0.05 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 16 January 2025. Payment date: 21 February 2025. The company is paying out more than 100% of its profits but is generating plenty of cash to support the dividend. Trailing yield: 3.5%. Lower than top quartile of British dividend payers (5.9%). In line with average of industry peers (3.2%). Announcement • Dec 16
Grainger plc, Annual General Meeting, Feb 05, 2025 Grainger plc, Annual General Meeting, Feb 05, 2025. Location: the citygate, st james boulevard, ne1 4je, newcastle upon tyne United Kingdom Major Estimate Revision • Dec 11
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 20% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 EPS estimate increased from UK£0.208 to UK£0.248. Revenue forecast steady at UK£139.6m. Net income forecast to grow 404% next year vs 71% growth forecast for Real Estate industry in the United Kingdom. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at UK£2.97. Share price was steady at UK£2.32 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Nov 22
Full year 2024 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Full year 2024 results: EPS: UK£0.042 (up from UK£0.035 in FY 2023). Revenue: UK£298.2m (up 12% from FY 2023). Net income: UK£31.2m (up 22% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 11% (in line with FY 2023). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 4.2%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 56%. Revenue is expected to decline by 32% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Real Estate industry in the United Kingdom are expected to grow by 3.3%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 59% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 9% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Announcement • Nov 22
Grainger plc Upgrades Earnings Guidance for the Fiscal Year 2026 Grainger plc upgraded earnings guidance for the fiscal year 2026. The company upgrade its EPRA earnings guidance for fiscal year 2026 by £5 million to £60 million, the second upgrade over the last 12 months, with the potential to deliver 50% EPRA earnings growth from the delivery of its committed pipeline over the medium term. Board Change • Nov 01
Insufficient new directors There is 1 new director who has joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: 1 new director. 5 experienced directors. 1 highly experienced director. Independent Non-Executive Director Michael Brodtman was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2023. The company’s insufficient board refreshment is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Announcement • Aug 08
Grainger plc Appoints Sapna Bedi Fitzgerald as Group General Counsel and Company Secretary, Sapna Will Start on 30 September 2024 Grainger plc announced that Sapna Bedi FitzGerald has been appointed as its Group General Counsel and Company Secretary. Sapna is currently Company Secretary and Group General Counsel at the FTSE-listed property services company, LSL Property Services PLC, having joined in 2001. Prior to LSL, Sapna worked as Legal Counsel at Aviva Life Legal Service. Sapna will start on 30 September 2024, joining Grainger's Executive Committee. Reported Earnings • May 19
First half 2024 earnings released: UK£0.03 loss per share (vs UK£0.006 profit in 1H 2023) First half 2024 results: UK£0.03 loss per share (down from UK£0.006 profit in 1H 2023). Revenue: UK£113.7m (up 2.9% from 1H 2023). Net loss: UK£22.0m (down UK£26.7m from profit in 1H 2023). Revenue is forecast to decline by 24% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Real Estate industry in the United Kingdom are expected to remain flat. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 28% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 3% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Declared Dividend • May 19
First half dividend increased to UK£0.025 Dividend of UK£0.025 is 11% higher than last year. Ex-date: 23rd May 2024 Payment date: 5th July 2024 Dividend yield will be 2.7%, which is lower than the industry average of 3.8%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is being paid despite the company being loss-making over the last 12 months. However, the dividend is well covered by cash flows (30% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 13% per year over the past 10 years and has been stable with no material reductions to payments, indicating a long track record of dividend growth and stability. Upcoming Dividend • Dec 21
Upcoming dividend of UK£0.044 per share at 2.5% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 28 December 2023. Payment date: 14 February 2024. The company is paying out more than 100% of its profits but is generating plenty of cash to support the dividend. Trailing yield: 2.5%. Lower than top quartile of British dividend payers (5.8%). Lower than average of industry peers (3.9%). Major Estimate Revision • Dec 13
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 13% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 consensus EPS increased from UK£0.166 to UK£0.187. Revenues were reaffirmed at UK£112.9m. Net income forecast to grow 452% next year vs 9.5% decline forecast for Real Estate industry in the United Kingdom. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at UK£2.97. Share price was steady at UK£2.64 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Nov 23
Full year 2023 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind Full year 2023 results: EPS: UK£0.035 (down from UK£0.31 in FY 2022). Revenue: UK£267.1m (down 4.3% from FY 2022). Net income: UK£25.6m (down 89% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 9.6% (down from 82% in FY 2022). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.3%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 33%. Revenue is expected to fall by 33% p.a. on average during the next 3 years compared to a 2.1% decline forecast for the Real Estate industry in the United Kingdom. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 8% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 2% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Announcement • Nov 22
Grainger plc to Report Fiscal Year 2024 Results on Nov 21, 2024 Grainger plc announced that they will report fiscal year 2024 results on Nov 21, 2024 Board Change • Nov 14
Less than half of directors are independent Following the recent departure of a director, there are only 3 independent directors on the board. The company's board is composed of: 3 independent directors. 4 non-independent directors. Independent Non-Executive Director Janette Bell was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2019. The company's minority of independent directors is a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Major Estimate Revision • Nov 05
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 18% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 EPS estimate fell from UK£0.058 to UK£0.048. Revenue forecast unchanged from UK£97.7m at last update. Net income forecast to shrink 58% next year vs 18% decline forecast for Real Estate industry in the United Kingdom. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at UK£2.92. Share price rose 15% to UK£2.57 over the past week. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Nov 03
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 15% After last week's 15% share price gain to UK£2.57, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 21x. Average forward P/E is 14x in the Real Estate industry in the United Kingdom. Total loss to shareholders of 1.3% over the past three years. Upcoming Dividend • May 18
Upcoming dividend of UK£0.023 per share at 2.3% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 25 May 2023. Payment date: 03 July 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 29% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 2.3%. Lower than top quartile of British dividend payers (5.8%). Lower than average of industry peers (4.6%). Reported Earnings • May 12
First half 2023 earnings released: EPS: UK£0.006 (vs UK£0.10 in 1H 2022) First half 2023 results: EPS: UK£0.006 (down from UK£0.10 in 1H 2022). Revenue: UK£50.8m (down 60% from 1H 2022). Net income: UK£4.70m (down 94% from 1H 2022). Profit margin: 9.3% (down from 60% in 1H 2022). Revenue is expected to fall by 9.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years compared to a 7.2% decline forecast for the Real Estate industry in the United Kingdom. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 25% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 2% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Major Estimate Revision • Feb 13
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 81% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 EPS estimate fell from UK£0.188 to UK£0.035. Revenue forecast unchanged from UK£94.0m at last update. Net income forecast to shrink 55% next year vs 50% decline forecast for Real Estate industry in the United Kingdom. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at UK£3.08. Share price fell 2.4% to UK£2.55 over the past week. Announcement • Feb 09
Grainger plc Appoints Michael Brodtman as Director Grainger plc announced that at its AGM held on February 8, 2023, shareholders approved the election of Michael Brodtman as director. Upcoming Dividend • Dec 22
Upcoming dividend of UK£0.039 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 29 December 2022. Payment date: 14 February 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 19% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 2.3%. Lower than top quartile of British dividend payers (5.7%). Lower than average of industry peers (4.4%). Reported Earnings • Nov 18
Full year 2022 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Full year 2022 results: EPS: UK£0.31 (up from UK£0.16 in FY 2021). Revenue: UK£90.7m (down 64% from FY 2021). Net income: UK£229.4m (up 110% from FY 2021). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 21%. Revenue is forecast to grow 10% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, while revenues in the Real Estate industry in the United Kingdom are expected to remain flat. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 17% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 4% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Major Estimate Revision • May 27
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2022 has been updated. 2022 EPS estimate increased from UK£0.22 to UK£0.26. Revenue forecast steady at UK£87.4m. Net income forecast to grow 18% next year vs 7.9% decline forecast for Real Estate industry in the United Kingdom. Consensus price target of UK£3.53 unchanged from last update. Share price rose 3.6% to UK£3.12 over the past week. Upcoming Dividend • May 19
Upcoming dividend of UK£0.021 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 26 May 2022. Payment date: 01 July 2022. Payout ratio is a comfortable 25% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 1.7%. Lower than top quartile of British dividend payers (4.8%). Lower than average of industry peers (3.1%). Reported Earnings • May 13
First half 2022 earnings released First half 2022 results: Revenue: (down 100% from 1H 2021). Net income: (down UK£40.1m from profit in 1H 2021). Profit margin: (down from 40% in 1H 2021). Over the next year, revenue is expected to shrink by 67% compared to a 11% decline forecast for the industry in the United Kingdom. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 3% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 5% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Recent Insider Transactions Derivative • Feb 19
CEO & Executive Director exercised options and sold UK£718k worth of stock On the 16th of February, Helen Gordon exercised options to acquire 248k shares at no cost and sold these for an average price of UK£2.90 per share. This trade did not impact their existing holding. For the year to September 2021, Helen's total compensation was 32% salary and 68% other compensation. This indicates that these sales could comprise a meaningful part of their income for the year. Since March 2021, Helen's direct individual holding has increased from 316.73k shares to 318.41k. This was the only transaction from an insider over the last 12 months. Upcoming Dividend • Dec 23
Upcoming dividend of UK£0.033 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 30 December 2021. Payment date: 14 February 2022. Payout ratio is a comfortable 32% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 1.7%. Lower than top quartile of British dividend payers (4.2%). Lower than average of industry peers (2.4%). Major Estimate Revision • Nov 30
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2022 has been updated. 2022 EPS estimate increased from UK£0.22 to UK£0.26. Revenue forecast unchanged at UK£85.7m. Net income forecast to grow 70% next year vs 0.2% growth forecast for Real Estate industry in the United Kingdom. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at UK£3.53. Share price fell 4.0% to UK£2.98 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Nov 19
Full year 2021 earnings released: EPS UK£0.16 (vs UK£0.14 in FY 2020) The company reported a solid full year result with improved earnings and revenues, although profit margins were flat. Full year 2021 results: Revenue: UK£248.9m (up 16% from FY 2020). Net income: UK£109.5m (up 18% from FY 2020). Profit margin: 44% (in line with FY 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 11% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 6% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Upcoming Dividend • May 20
Upcoming dividend of UK£0.018 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 27 May 2021. Payment date: 02 July 2021. Trailing yield: 1.9%. Lower than top quartile of British dividend payers (4.1%). Lower than average of industry peers (2.6%). Reported Earnings • May 14
First half 2021 earnings released: EPS UK£0.06 (vs UK£0.064 in 1H 2020) The company reported a mediocre first half result with weaker profit margins, although earnings were flat and revenues improved. First half 2021 results: Revenue: UK£101.3m (up 17% from 1H 2020). Net income: UK£40.1m (flat on 1H 2020). Profit margin: 40% (down from 46% in 1H 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 13% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 3% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Is New 90 Day High Low • Feb 11
New 90-day low: UK£2.66 The company is down 8.0% from its price of UK£2.90 on 12 November 2020. The British market is up 5.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Real Estate industry, which is up 7.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is UK£0.73 per share. Is New 90 Day High Low • Jan 19
New 90-day low: UK£2.74 The company is down 4.0% from its price of UK£2.87 on 21 October 2020. The British market is up 16% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Real Estate industry, which is up 15% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is UK£0.75 per share. 