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As Future (LON:FUTR) climbs 8.4% this past week, investors may now be noticing the company's three-year earnings growth
It's not possible to invest over long periods without making some bad investments. But you have a problem if you face massive losses more than once in a while. So take a moment to sympathize with the long term shareholders of Future plc (LON:FUTR), who have seen the share price tank a massive 73% over a three year period. That might cause some serious doubts about the merits of the initial decision to buy the stock, to put it mildly. On the other hand the share price has bounced 8.4% over the last week.
The recent uptick of 8.4% could be a positive sign of things to come, so let's take a look at historical fundamentals.
Check out our latest analysis for Future
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
Although the share price is down over three years, Future actually managed to grow EPS by 8.0% per year in that time. This is quite a puzzle, and suggests there might be something temporarily buoying the share price. Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.
It's worth taking a look at other metrics, because the EPS growth doesn't seem to match with the falling share price.
With a rather small yield of just 0.4% we doubt that the stock's share price is based on its dividend. Revenue is actually up 13% over the three years, so the share price drop doesn't seem to hinge on revenue, either. It's probably worth investigating Future further; while we may be missing something on this analysis, there might also be an opportunity.
The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Future will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).
A Different Perspective
It's nice to see that Future shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 20% over the last year. And that does include the dividend. That certainly beats the loss of about 6% per year over the last half decade. We generally put more weight on the long term performance over the short term, but the recent improvement could hint at a (positive) inflection point within the business. Before spending more time on Future it might be wise to click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling shares.
If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on British exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About LSE:FUTR
Future
Future plc, together with its subsidiaries, publishes and distributes content for games, entertainment, technology, sports, savings and wealth, lifestyle, knowledge and news, and B2B sectors primarily in the United States and the United Kingdom.
Good value with mediocre balance sheet.