Auto Trader Group plc's (LON:AUTO) Popularity With Investors Is Under Threat From Overpricing

Auto Trader Group plc's (LON:AUTO) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 24.8x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in the United Kingdom, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 15x and even P/E's below 9x are quite common. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

With earnings growth that's superior to most other companies of late, Auto Trader Group has been doing relatively well. The P/E is probably high because investors think this strong earnings performance will continue. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

See our latest analysis for Auto Trader Group

Keen to find out how analysts think Auto Trader Group's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

Is There Enough Growth For Auto Trader Group?

Auto Trader Group's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew earnings per share by an impressive 21% last year. Pleasingly, EPS has also lifted 55% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the last 12 months of growth. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been superb for the company.

Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to climb by 8.2% per annum during the coming three years according to the analysts following the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 13% each year, which is noticeably more attractive.

With this information, we find it concerning that Auto Trader Group is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

The Bottom Line On Auto Trader Group's P/E

It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

We've established that Auto Trader Group currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its forecast growth is lower than the wider market. When we see a weak earnings outlook with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. This places shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

Many other vital risk factors can be found on the company's balance sheet. You can assess many of the main risks through our free balance sheet analysis for Auto Trader Group with six simple checks.

If you're unsure about the strength of Auto Trader Group's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.