Glencore (LSE:GLEN): Taking a Fresh Look at Valuation After Recent Share Movement

Glencore (LSE:GLEN) has caught the attention of investors once again, but this time there is no clear catalyst driving the move. Without a major event or headline, sudden shifts in the share price often spark curiosity. What might the market be signaling, and is it time to take a closer look at valuation?

While there hasn’t been a defining headline to explain the latest change, Glencore’s performance tells its own story. The shares have struggled year to date, losing ground over the past year, though there are hints of positive momentum over the past month and quarter. In the bigger picture, it is a company that has weathered ups and downs, with long-term returns showing both risk and resilience.

So, is the recent movement setting up an undervalued entry point for Glencore, or is the market already factoring in all that future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 18.2% Undervalued

According to the most widely followed narrative, Glencore shares are viewed as significantly undervalued, with consensus analyst forecasts pointing to a bright medium-term outlook driven by operational momentum and major structural catalysts.

A significant uplift in copper production volumes is expected in the second half of 2025 and beyond, as operational bottlenecks and mine sequencing normalize across key sites. There is a clear pathway to 1 million tonnes of annual copper by 2028, and new low-capex, high-return brownfield and greenfield projects in Argentina (MARA, El Pachón) are progressing, supporting sustained, long-term revenue and EBITDA growth in alignment with continued global electrification and EV adoption.

What exactly is fueling this bullish assessment? There is a bold quantitative forecast behind the price target, including assumptions about fast-rising profits and a premium future valuation multiple. Curious to see why analysts believe Glencore could soon trade much higher? The key numbers and their impact might surprise you.

Result: Fair Value of £3.71 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent weakness in key commodity prices or unpredictable regulatory shifts could quickly change Glencore’s outlook and act as catalysts for the current narrative to unravel.

Find out about the key risks to this Glencore narrative.

Another View: What Does Our DCF Model Say?

Taking a step back from analyst targets and the upbeat outlook, our SWS DCF model arrives at a very different conclusion for Glencore, suggesting the stock might actually be overvalued on a cash flow basis. Which perspective will prove right as conditions change?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Glencore for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Glencore Narrative

If you see things differently or want to investigate Glencore's numbers for yourself, it's easy to craft your own assessment in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Glencore research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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