Has Antofagasta plc's (LON:ANTO) Impressive Stock Performance Got Anything to Do With Its Fundamentals?

Antofagasta (LON:ANTO) has had a great run on the share market with its stock up by a significant 17% over the last month. We wonder if and what role the company's financials play in that price change as a company's long-term fundamentals usually dictate market outcomes. Specifically, we decided to study Antofagasta's ROE in this article.

Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors’ money. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company's shareholders.

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How To Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for return on equity is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Antofagasta is:

10% = US$1.3b ÷ US$13b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2024).

The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. That means that for every £1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated £0.10 in profit.

See our latest analysis for Antofagasta

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

Antofagasta's Earnings Growth And 10% ROE

On the face of it, Antofagasta's ROE is not much to talk about. Yet, a closer study shows that the company's ROE is similar to the industry average of 12%. On the other hand, Antofagasta reported a moderate 11% net income growth over the past five years. Considering the moderately low ROE, it is quite possible that there might be some other aspects that are positively influencing the company's earnings growth. Such as - high earnings retention or an efficient management in place.

We then performed a comparison between Antofagasta's net income growth with the industry, which revealed that the company's growth is similar to the average industry growth of 10% in the same 5-year period.

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. If you're wondering about Antofagasta's's valuation, check out this gauge of its price-to-earnings ratio, as compared to its industry.

Is Antofagasta Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

Antofagasta has a three-year median payout ratio of 42%, which implies that it retains the remaining 58% of its profits. This suggests that its dividend is well covered, and given the decent growth seen by the company, it looks like management is reinvesting its earnings efficiently.

Additionally, Antofagasta has paid dividends over a period of at least ten years which means that the company is pretty serious about sharing its profits with shareholders. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company is expected to keep paying out approximately 38% of its profits over the next three years. Accordingly, forecasts suggest that Antofagasta's future ROE will be 11% which is again, similar to the current ROE.

Summary

On the whole, we do feel that Antofagasta has some positive attributes. Even in spite of the low rate of return, the company has posted impressive earnings growth as a result of reinvesting heavily into its business. That being so, the latest analyst forecasts show that the company will continue to see an expansion in its earnings. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.