Nichols plc (LON:NICL) Stock Rockets 26% As Investors Are Less Pessimistic Than Expected

Nichols plc (LON:NICL) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 26% after a shaky period beforehand. The last 30 days bring the annual gain to a very sharp 26%.

After such a large jump in price, Nichols' price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 24.9x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in the United Kingdom, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 16x and even P/E's below 9x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.

Recent times have been advantageous for Nichols as its earnings have been rising faster than most other companies. The P/E is probably high because investors think this strong earnings performance will continue. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

View our latest analysis for Nichols

If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on Nichols.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

Nichols' P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 64% gain to the company's bottom line. The strong recent performance means it was also able to grow EPS by 87% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have probably welcomed those medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to climb by 12% each year during the coming three years according to the four analysts following the company. That's shaping up to be similar to the 13% per year growth forecast for the broader market.

With this information, we find it interesting that Nichols is trading at a high P/E compared to the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly average growth expectations and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. Although, additional gains will be difficult to achieve as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh down the share price eventually.

The Key Takeaway

The strong share price surge has got Nichols' P/E rushing to great heights as well. While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

Our examination of Nichols' analyst forecasts revealed that its market-matching earnings outlook isn't impacting its high P/E as much as we would have predicted. Right now we are uncomfortable with the relatively high share price as the predicted future earnings aren't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless these conditions improve, it's challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Nichols that you need to be mindful of.

You might be able to find a better investment than Nichols. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.