If You Had Bought Tullow Oil's (LON:TLW) Shares Three Years Ago You Would Be Down 85%

It is a pleasure to report that the Tullow Oil plc (LON:TLW) is up 81% in the last quarter. But the last three years have seen a terrible decline. To wit, the share price sky-dived 85% in that time. Arguably, the recent bounce is to be expected after such a bad drop. Only time will tell if the company can sustain the turnaround.

While a drop like that is definitely a body blow, money isn't as important as health and happiness.

Check out our latest analysis for Tullow Oil

Because Tullow Oil made a loss in the last twelve months, we think the market is probably more focussed on revenue and revenue growth, at least for now. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. That's because it's hard to be confident a company will be sustainable if revenue growth is negligible, and it never makes a profit.

In the last three years Tullow Oil saw its revenue shrink by 0.2% per year. That's not what investors generally want to see. Having said that the 23% annualized share price decline highlights the risk of investing in unprofitable companies. This business clearly needs to grow revenues if it is to perform as investors hope. There's no more than a snowball's chance in hell that share price will head back to its old highs, in the short term.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

Tullow Oil is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. Given we have quite a good number of analyst forecasts, it might be well worth checking out this free chart depicting consensus estimates.

A Different Perspective

We regret to report that Tullow Oil shareholders are down 54% for the year. Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 9.0%. Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 12% over the last half decade. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Take risks, for example - Tullow Oil has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on GB exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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