Key Insights
- Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Petrofac fair value estimate is UK£0.65
- Current share price of UK£0.75 suggests Petrofac is potentially trading close to its fair value
- The US$1.06 analyst price target for PFC is 64% more than our estimate of fair value
Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Petrofac Limited (LON:PFC) as an investment opportunity by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Check out our latest analysis for Petrofac
Crunching The Numbers
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
| Levered FCF ($, Millions) | US$38.3m | US$95.0m | US$142.8m | US$83.0m | US$55.0m | US$42.2m | US$35.5m | US$31.7m | US$29.4m | US$28.0m |
| Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x3 | Analyst x4 | Analyst x2 | Analyst x1 | Est @ -33.76% | Est @ -23.26% | Est @ -15.91% | Est @ -10.76% | Est @ -7.16% | Est @ -4.64% |
| Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 13% | US$33.9 | US$74.2 | US$98.7 | US$50.7 | US$29.7 | US$20.1 | US$15.0 | US$11.8 | US$9.7 | US$8.2 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$352m
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.2%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 13%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$28m× (1 + 1.2%) ÷ (13%– 1.2%) = US$239m
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$239m÷ ( 1 + 13%)10= US$70m
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$422m. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of UK£0.7, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
The Assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Petrofac as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 13%, which is based on a levered beta of 2.000. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Petrofac
- Debt is well covered by .
- Interest payments on debt are not well covered.
- Forecast to reduce losses next year.
- Good value based on P/S ratio compared to estimated Fair P/S ratio.
- Significant insider buying over the past 3 months.
- Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.
Next Steps:
Whilst important, the DCF calculation ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Petrofac, we've put together three further items you should explore:
- Risks: Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Petrofac , and understanding this should be part of your investment process.
- Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for PFC's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the LSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
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Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About LSE:PFC
Petrofac
Designs, builds, manages, maintains, and decommissions infrastructure for the energy industries in the United Kingdom, Algeria, Lithuania, Malaysia, the United States, Thailand, Oman, Australia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, Libya, India, the United Arab Emirates, the Netherlands, Ivory Coast, and internationally.
Undervalued with high growth potential.
