Earnings Miss: BP p.l.c. Missed EPS By 90% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on BP p.l.c. (LON:BP.), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its yearly results last week. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$187b, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 90%, coming in at just US$0.023 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for BP

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from BP's 21 analysts is for revenues of US$191.8b in 2025. This reflects a reasonable 2.4% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 2,397% to US$0.59. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$182.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.62 in 2025. Overall it looks as though the analysts were a bit mixed on the latest results. Although there was a a reasonable to revenue, the consensus also made a small dip in its earnings per share forecasts.

The consensus price target was unchanged at UK£4.87, suggesting the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite some adjustments to profit and revenue forecasts. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on BP, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at UK£6.49 and the most bearish at UK£3.99 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that BP's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 2.4% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 6.9% p.a. growth over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue shrink 1.7% per year. So it's clear that despite the slowdown in growth, BP is still expected to grow meaningfully faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for BP. On the plus side, they also lifted their revenue estimates, and the company is expected to perform better than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple BP analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 3 warning signs for BP that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.