BP p.l.c. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

BP p.l.c. (LON:BP.) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 2.1% to UK£3.50 in the week after its latest first-quarter results. Results were mixed, with revenues of US$47b exceeding expectations, even as statutory earnings per share (EPS) fell badly short. Earnings were US$0.043 per share, -56% short of analyst expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

We've discovered 1 warning sign about BP. View them for free.

Following last week's earnings report, BP's 21 analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$184.8b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with BP forecast to report a statutory profit of US$0.52 per share. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$176.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.49 in 2025. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment following the latest results, withthe analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for both revenues and earnings.

See our latest analysis for BP

Althoughthe analysts have upgraded their earnings estimates, there was no change to the consensus price target of UK£4.49, suggesting that the forecast performance does not have a long term impact on the company's valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values BP at UK£6.54 per share, while the most bearish prices it at UK£3.62. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 0.4% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 6.0% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue decline 0.6% annually for the foreseeable future. The forecasts do look comparatively optimistic for BP, since they're expecting it to shrink slower than the industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around BP's earnings potential next year. Fortunately, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates it is expected to perform better than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for BP going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for BP that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.