Orlen S.A.

LSE:0FMN Stock Report

Market Cap: zł54.4b

Orlen Valuation

Is 0FMN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 0FMN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 0FMN (PLN46.9) is trading below our estimate of fair value (PLN224.43)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 0FMN is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 0FMN?

Key metric: As 0FMN is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 0FMN. This is calculated by dividing 0FMN's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 0FMN's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio14.5x
Earningszł3.75b
Market Capzł54.41b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 0FMN's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 0FMN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average22.1x
HBR Harbour Energy
45.3x14.4%UK£3.5b
ENOG Energean
8.3x7.5%UK£1.8b
BP. BP
27.4x29.4%UK£59.3b
YCA Yellow Cake
7.4x-79.9%UK£1.1b
0FMN Orlen
14.5x17.5%zł54.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 0FMN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.5x) compared to the peer average (22.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 0FMN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Oil and Gas Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ROSN Rosneft Oil
1.5xn/aUS$21.03b
No more companies available in this PE range
0FMN 14.5xIndustry Avg. 9.1xNo. of Companies4PE0612182430+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 0FMN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.5x) compared to the UK Oil and Gas industry average (9.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 0FMN's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

0FMN PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio14.5x
Fair PE Ration/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate 0FMN's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 0FMN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Currentzł46.90
zł73.27
+56.2%
15.6%zł94.08zł61.50n/a10
Dec ’25n/a
zł75.40
0%
18.3%zł105.37zł61.50n/a10
Nov ’25n/a
zł75.82
0%
17.7%zł105.37zł61.50n/a10
Oct ’25n/a
zł79.37
0%
14.8%zł105.37zł65.90n/a10
Sep ’25n/a
zł78.24
0%
11.8%zł94.74zł65.90n/a10
Aug ’25n/a
zł78.24
0%
11.8%zł94.74zł65.90n/a10
Jul ’25zł67.69
zł78.94
+16.6%
12.0%zł94.74zł65.90n/a9
Jun ’25zł63.84
zł78.94
+23.6%
12.0%zł94.74zł65.90n/a9
May ’25n/a
zł80.44
0%
11.0%zł94.74zł71.50n/a8
Apr ’25zł64.09
zł80.44
+25.5%
11.0%zł94.74zł71.50n/a8
Mar ’25zł64.29
zł79.15
+23.1%
13.0%zł95.30zł67.60n/a8
Feb ’25n/a
zł79.15
0%
13.0%zł95.30zł67.60n/a8
Jan ’25n/a
zł79.78
0%
17.7%zł105.00zł64.00n/a8
Dec ’24zł58.81
zł80.15
+36.3%
17.5%zł105.00zł64.00n/a8
Nov ’24n/a
zł80.85
0%
18.0%zł105.00zł64.00n/a9
Oct ’24n/a
zł75.77
0%
15.8%zł95.50zł60.00n/a9
Sep ’24n/a
zł77.13
0%
15.0%zł95.50zł60.00n/a9
Aug ’24n/a
zł78.76
0%
15.6%zł100.10zł61.00n/a9
Jul ’24zł64.33
zł78.13
+21.5%
13.8%zł100.00zł61.00zł67.6910
Jun ’24zł60.19
zł77.39
+28.6%
13.3%zł100.00zł61.00zł63.8411
May ’24zł61.38
zł77.03
+25.5%
14.2%zł100.00zł57.00n/a11
Apr ’24zł58.25
zł76.62
+31.5%
14.9%zł100.00zł57.00zł64.0911
Mar ’24n/a
zł80.51
0%
14.0%zł100.00zł60.00zł64.2910
Feb ’24zł64.29
zł80.51
+25.2%
14.0%zł100.00zł60.00n/a10
Jan ’24zł63.62
zł83.71
+31.6%
11.2%zł100.00zł67.00n/a9
Dec ’23zł68.24
zł83.26
+22.0%
14.8%zł100.00zł62.00zł58.819

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/23 06:00
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Orlen S.A. is covered by 25 analysts. 6 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Robert BateBarclays
Yuriy KukhtanychBerenberg
Kamil KliszczBiuro maklerskie mBanku