Stock Analysis

Intermediate Capital Group (LON:ICP) Has Gifted Shareholders With A Fantastic 286% Total Return On Their Investment

LSE:ICG
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The most you can lose on any stock (assuming you don't use leverage) is 100% of your money. But on the bright side, if you buy shares in a high quality company at the right price, you can gain well over 100%. For instance, the price of Intermediate Capital Group plc (LON:ICP) stock is up an impressive 189% over the last five years. It's also good to see the share price up 11% over the last quarter. But this could be related to the strong market, which is up 6.7% in the last three months.

See our latest analysis for Intermediate Capital Group

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

Intermediate Capital Group's earnings per share are down 3.8% per year, despite strong share price performance over five years.

By glancing at these numbers, we'd posit that the decline in earnings per share is not representative of how the business has changed over the years. Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

We are not particularly impressed by the annual compound revenue growth of 1.7% over five years. So why is the share price up? It's not immediately obvious to us, but a closer look at the company's progress over time might yield answers.

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
LSE:ICP Earnings and Revenue Growth February 22nd 2021

You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Intermediate Capital Group the TSR over the last 5 years was 286%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Intermediate Capital Group shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 4.7% over the last year. That's including the dividend. However, the TSR over five years, coming in at 31% per year, is even more impressive. Potential buyers might understandably feel they've missed the opportunity, but it's always possible business is still firing on all cylinders. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Intermediate Capital Group better, we need to consider many other factors. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Intermediate Capital Group you should know about.

We will like Intermediate Capital Group better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on GB exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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