Analysts Are Updating Their Hargreaves Lansdown plc (LON:HL.) Estimates After Its Half-Year Results

Last week, you might have seen that Hargreaves Lansdown plc (LON:HL.) released its half-year result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 9.7% to UK£7.49 in the past week. Hargreaves Lansdown reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of UK£368m and statutory earnings per share of UK£0.68, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Hargreaves Lansdown

Taking into account the latest results, the 16 analysts covering Hargreaves Lansdown provided consensus estimates of UK£736.3m revenue in 2024, which would reflect a noticeable 2.3% decline over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to decrease 6.7% to UK£0.59 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of UK£739.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of UK£0.60 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of UK£9.25, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Hargreaves Lansdown, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at UK£15.00 and the most bearish at UK£6.00 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 4.5% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 9.0% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 2.6% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Hargreaves Lansdown is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Hargreaves Lansdown's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Hargreaves Lansdown going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Hargreaves Lansdown you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.