XPS Pensions Group plc

BATS-CHIXE:XPSL Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£742.0m

XPS Pensions Group Valuation

Is XPSL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of XPSL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: XPSL (£3.54) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£3.6)

Significantly Below Fair Value: XPSL is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for XPSL?

Key metric: As XPSL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for XPSL. This is calculated by dividing XPSL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is XPSL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio12x
EarningsUK£61.74m
Market CapUK£741.96m

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does XPSL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for XPSL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average16.7x
BPCR BioPharma Credit
9.6xn/aUS$1.1b
FSG Foresight Group Holdings
19.5x29.0%UK£516.5m
IPX Impax Asset Management Group
10.5x2.5%UK£425.5m
TAM Tatton Asset Management
27.1x11.9%UK£417.4m
XPSL XPS Pensions Group
12x-14.5%UK£742.0m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: XPSL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12x) compared to the peer average (16.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does XPSL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Capital Markets Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
PNIX Phoenix Digital Assets
1.2xn/aUS$34.29m
IX. i(x) Net Zero
0.1xn/aUS$8.94m
APQ APQ Global
0.4xn/aUS$5.78m
MAFL Mineral & Financial Investments
2xn/aUS$5.00m
No more companies available in this PE range
No. of Companies19PE01020304050+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: XPSL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12x) compared to the UK Capital Markets industry average (12.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is XPSL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

XPSL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio12x
Fair PE Ratio10.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: XPSL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst XPSL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£3.54
UK£4.00
+13.1%
5.2%UK£4.35UK£3.70n/a5
Nov ’25UK£3.60
UK£3.27
-9.1%
6.4%UK£3.55UK£2.90n/a5
Oct ’25UK£2.87
UK£3.19
+11.3%
5.0%UK£3.32UK£2.90n/a5
Sep ’25UK£3.05
UK£3.19
+4.7%
5.0%UK£3.32UK£2.90n/a5
Aug ’25UK£3.21
UK£3.19
-0.5%
5.0%UK£3.32UK£2.90n/a5
Jul ’25UK£3.15
UK£3.19
+1.4%
5.0%UK£3.32UK£2.90n/a5
Jun ’25UK£2.66
UK£2.88
+8.1%
6.7%UK£3.10UK£2.60n/a5
May ’25UK£2.59
UK£2.86
+10.3%
6.0%UK£3.00UK£2.60n/a5
Apr ’25UK£2.33
UK£2.62
+12.4%
5.2%UK£2.80UK£2.40n/a5
Mar ’25UK£2.33
UK£2.62
+12.4%
5.2%UK£2.80UK£2.40n/a5
Feb ’25UK£2.10
UK£2.62
+24.8%
5.2%UK£2.80UK£2.40n/a5
Jan ’25UK£2.31
UK£2.62
+13.4%
5.2%UK£2.80UK£2.40n/a5
Dec ’24UK£2.33
UK£2.59
+11.2%
7.3%UK£2.80UK£2.25n/a5
Nov ’24UK£2.11
UK£2.49
+18.2%
5.7%UK£2.65UK£2.25UK£3.605
Oct ’24UK£1.96
UK£2.22
+13.4%
7.4%UK£2.51UK£2.00UK£2.875
Sep ’24UK£1.85
UK£2.22
+20.4%
7.4%UK£2.51UK£2.00UK£3.055
Aug ’24UK£1.90
UK£2.22
+16.9%
7.4%UK£2.51UK£2.00UK£3.215
Jul ’24UK£1.78
UK£2.14
+20.3%
9.8%UK£2.51UK£1.90UK£3.155
Jun ’24UK£1.66
UK£2.00
+21.0%
5.4%UK£2.16UK£1.90UK£2.665
May ’24UK£1.58
UK£1.97
+24.6%
8.2%UK£2.16UK£1.75UK£2.596
Apr ’24UK£1.61
UK£1.97
+22.3%
8.2%UK£2.16UK£1.75UK£2.336
Mar ’24UK£1.67
UK£1.84
+10.1%
11.4%UK£2.10UK£1.55UK£2.335
Feb ’24UK£1.61
UK£1.84
+14.5%
11.4%UK£2.10UK£1.55UK£2.105
Jan ’24UK£1.40
UK£1.84
+31.8%
11.4%UK£2.10UK£1.55UK£2.315
Dec ’23UK£1.40
UK£1.84
+31.3%
11.4%UK£2.10UK£1.55UK£2.335
Nov ’23UK£1.19
UK£1.83
+53.8%
11.8%UK£2.10UK£1.55UK£2.114

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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