Restaurant Group's (LON:RTN) Robust Earnings Might Be Weaker Than You Think

Shareholders didn't seem to be thrilled with The Restaurant Group plc's (LON:RTN) recent earnings report, despite healthy profit numbers. We think that they might be concerned about some underlying details that our analysis found.

Check out our latest analysis for Restaurant Group

To understand the value of a company's earnings growth, it is imperative to consider any dilution of shareholders' interests. Restaurant Group expanded the number of shares on issue by 30% over the last year. That means its earnings are split among a greater number of shares. To celebrate net income while ignoring dilution is like rejoicing because you have a single slice of a larger pizza, but ignoring the fact that the pizza is now cut into many more slices. You can see a chart of Restaurant Group's EPS by clicking here.

How Is Dilution Impacting Restaurant Group's Earnings Per Share? (EPS)

Unfortunately, we don't have any visibility into its profits three years back, because we lack the data. And even focusing only on the last twelve months, we don't have a meaningful growth rate because it made a loss a year ago, too. But mathematics aside, it is always good to see when a formerly unprofitable business come good (though we accept profit would have been higher if dilution had not been required). So you can see that the dilution has had a fairly significant impact on shareholders.

If Restaurant Group's EPS can grow over time then that drastically improves the chances of the share price moving in the same direction. But on the other hand, we'd be far less excited to learn profit (but not EPS) was improving. For that reason, you could say that EPS is more important that net income in the long run, assuming the goal is to assess whether a company's share price might grow.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit

Alongside that dilution, it's also important to note that Restaurant Group's profit was boosted by unusual items worth UK£114m in the last twelve months. While we like to see profit increases, we tend to be a little more cautious when unusual items have made a big contribution. We ran the numbers on most publicly listed companies worldwide, and it's very common for unusual items to be once-off in nature. And, after all, that's exactly what the accounting terminology implies. We can see that Restaurant Group's positive unusual items were quite significant relative to its profit in the year to July 2021. All else being equal, this would likely have the effect of making the statutory profit a poor guide to underlying earnings power.

Our Take On Restaurant Group's Profit Performance

To sum it all up, Restaurant Group got a nice boost to profit from unusual items; without that, its statutory results would have looked worse. On top of that, the dilution means that its earnings per share performance is worse than its profit performance. Considering all this we'd argue Restaurant Group's profits probably give an overly generous impression of its sustainable level of profitability. If you'd like to know more about Restaurant Group as a business, it's important to be aware of any risks it's facing. To that end, you should learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Restaurant Group (including 1 which is potentially serious).

Our examination of Restaurant Group has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And, on that basis, we are somewhat skeptical. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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