Is Greggs plc's (LON:GRG) Recent Stock Performance Tethered To Its Strong Fundamentals?

Most readers would already be aware that Greggs' (LON:GRG) stock increased significantly by 10.0% over the past month. Since the market usually pay for a company’s long-term fundamentals, we decided to study the company’s key performance indicators to see if they could be influencing the market. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Greggs' ROE today.

Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. In short, ROE shows the profit each dollar generates with respect to its shareholder investments.

View our latest analysis for Greggs

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Greggs is:

28% = UK£137m ÷ UK£494m (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2024).

The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. So, this means that for every £1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of £0.28.

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

Greggs' Earnings Growth And 28% ROE

To begin with, Greggs has a pretty high ROE which is interesting. Secondly, even when compared to the industry average of 8.4% the company's ROE is quite impressive. So, the substantial 25% net income growth seen by Greggs over the past five years isn't overly surprising.

As a next step, we compared Greggs' net income growth with the industry, and pleasingly, we found that the growth seen by the company is higher than the average industry growth of 11%.

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if Greggs is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.

Is Greggs Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

Greggs has a three-year median payout ratio of 47% (where it is retaining 53% of its income) which is not too low or not too high. This suggests that its dividend is well covered, and given the high growth we discussed above, it looks like Greggs is reinvesting its earnings efficiently.

Additionally, Greggs has paid dividends over a period of at least ten years which means that the company is pretty serious about sharing its profits with shareholders. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company over the next three years is expected to be approximately 50%. Accordingly, forecasts suggest that Greggs' future ROE will be 25% which is again, similar to the current ROE.

Summary

Overall, we are quite pleased with Greggs' performance. Specifically, we like that the company is reinvesting a huge chunk of its profits at a high rate of return. This of course has caused the company to see substantial growth in its earnings. Having said that, the company's earnings growth is expected to slow down, as forecasted in the current analyst estimates. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.