Greggs (LON:GRG) Might Be Having Difficulty Using Its Capital Effectively

If you're not sure where to start when looking for the next multi-bagger, there are a few key trends you should keep an eye out for. Firstly, we'll want to see a proven return on capital employed (ROCE) that is increasing, and secondly, an expanding base of capital employed. Ultimately, this demonstrates that it's a business that is reinvesting profits at increasing rates of return. However, after investigating Greggs (LON:GRG), we don't think it's current trends fit the mold of a multi-bagger.

What is Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)?

For those that aren't sure what ROCE is, it measures the amount of pre-tax profits a company can generate from the capital employed in its business. To calculate this metric for Greggs, this is the formula:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.18 = UK£115m ÷ (UK£808m - UK£169m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to July 2021).

Therefore, Greggs has an ROCE of 18%. That's a relatively normal return on capital, and it's around the 17% generated by the Hospitality industry.

Check out our latest analysis for Greggs

In the above chart we have measured Greggs' prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you're interested, you can view the analysts predictions in our free report on analyst forecasts for the company.

What Does the ROCE Trend For Greggs Tell Us?

When we looked at the ROCE trend at Greggs, we didn't gain much confidence. Over the last five years, returns on capital have decreased to 18% from 28% five years ago. Although, given both revenue and the amount of assets employed in the business have increased, it could suggest the company is investing in growth, and the extra capital has led to a short-term reduction in ROCE. And if the increased capital generates additional returns, the business, and thus shareholders, will benefit in the long run.

In Conclusion...

Even though returns on capital have fallen in the short term, we find it promising that revenue and capital employed have both increased for Greggs. And the stock has done incredibly well with a 223% return over the last five years, so long term investors are no doubt ecstatic with that result. So should these growth trends continue, we'd be optimistic on the stock going forward.

If you're still interested in Greggs it's worth checking out our FREE intrinsic value approximation to see if it's trading at an attractive price in other respects.

If you want to search for solid companies with great earnings, check out this free list of companies with good balance sheets and impressive returns on equity.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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