The last three months have been tough on Ocado Group plc (LON:OCDO) shareholders, who have seen the share price decline a rather worrying 40%. But that scarcely detracts from the really solid long term returns generated by the company over five years. It's fair to say most would be happy with 167% the gain in that time. Generally speaking the long term returns will give you a better idea of business quality than short periods can. Of course, that doesn't necessarily mean it's cheap now. While the long term returns are impressive, we do have some sympathy for those who bought more recently, given the 61% drop, in the last year.
In light of the stock dropping 6.7% in the past week, we want to investigate the longer term story, and see if fundamentals have been the driver of the company's positive five-year return.
Given that Ocado Group didn't make a profit in the last twelve months, we'll focus on revenue growth to form a quick view of its business development. When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally expect to see good revenue growth. That's because it's hard to be confident a company will be sustainable if revenue growth is negligible, and it never makes a profit.
In the last 5 years Ocado Group saw its revenue grow at 15% per year. That's a pretty good long term growth rate. Broadly speaking, this solid progress may well be reflected by the healthy share price gain of 22% per year over five years. Given that the business has made good progress on the top line, it would be worth taking a look at the growth trend. Accelerating growth can be a sign of an inflection point - and could indicate profits lie ahead. Worth watching 100%
The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. If you are thinking of buying or selling Ocado Group stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
A Different Perspective
We regret to report that Ocado Group shareholders are down 61% for the year. Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 0.5%. However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 22%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Ocado Group that you should be aware of before investing here.
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on GB exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.