Naked Wines' (LON:WINE) Solid Profits Have Weak Fundamentals

Naked Wines plc (LON:WINE) announced strong profits, but the stock was stagnant. We did some digging, and we found some concerning factors in the details.

Check out our latest analysis for Naked Wines

Examining Cashflow Against Naked Wines' Earnings

As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.

Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.

For the year to March 2022, Naked Wines had an accrual ratio of 1.07. As a general rule, that bodes poorly for future profitability. And indeed, during the period the company didn't produce any free cash flow whatsoever. In the last twelve months it actually had negative free cash flow, with an outflow of UK£45m despite its profit of UK£2.38m, mentioned above. We saw that FCF was UK£31m a year ago though, so Naked Wines has at least been able to generate positive FCF in the past. One positive for Naked Wines shareholders is that it's accrual ratio was significantly better last year, providing reason to believe that it may return to stronger cash conversion in the future. As a result, some shareholders may be looking for stronger cash conversion in the current year.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

Our Take On Naked Wines' Profit Performance

As we discussed above, we think Naked Wines' earnings were not supported by free cash flow, which might concern some investors. As a result, we think it may well be the case that Naked Wines' underlying earnings power is lower than its statutory profit. The good news is that it earned a profit in the last twelve months, despite its previous loss. Of course, we've only just scratched the surface when it comes to analysing its earnings; one could also consider margins, forecast growth, and return on investment, among other factors. In light of this, if you'd like to do more analysis on the company, it's vital to be informed of the risks involved. To help with this, we've discovered 3 warning signs (2 shouldn't be ignored!) that you ought to be aware of before buying any shares in Naked Wines.

This note has only looked at a single factor that sheds light on the nature of Naked Wines' profit. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.