Returns On Capital Signal Tricky Times Ahead For Persimmon (LON:PSN)

What are the early trends we should look for to identify a stock that could multiply in value over the long term? One common approach is to try and find a company with returns on capital employed (ROCE) that are increasing, in conjunction with a growing amount of capital employed. This shows us that it's a compounding machine, able to continually reinvest its earnings back into the business and generate higher returns. In light of that, when we looked at Persimmon (LON:PSN) and its ROCE trend, we weren't exactly thrilled.

Return On Capital Employed (ROCE): What Is It?

For those that aren't sure what ROCE is, it measures the amount of pre-tax profits a company can generate from the capital employed in its business. To calculate this metric for Persimmon, this is the formula:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.17 = UK£630m ÷ (UK£4.8b - UK£1.1b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2024).

Therefore, Persimmon has an ROCE of 17%. On its own, that's a standard return, however it's much better than the 9.3% generated by the Consumer Durables industry.

Check out our latest analysis for Persimmon

Above you can see how the current ROCE for Persimmon compares to its prior returns on capital, but there's only so much you can tell from the past. If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free analyst report for Persimmon .

How Are Returns Trending?

When we looked at the ROCE trend at Persimmon, we didn't gain much confidence. Around five years ago the returns on capital were 35%, but since then they've fallen to 17%. And considering revenue has dropped while employing more capital, we'd be cautious. If this were to continue, you might be looking at a company that is trying to reinvest for growth but is actually losing market share since sales haven't increased.

Our Take On Persimmon's ROCE

From the above analysis, we find it rather worrisome that returns on capital and sales for Persimmon have fallen, meanwhile the business is employing more capital than it was five years ago. And, the stock has remained flat over the last five years, so investors don't seem too impressed either. Unless there is a shift to a more positive trajectory in these metrics, we would look elsewhere.

If you want to continue researching Persimmon, you might be interested to know about the 2 warning signs that our analysis has discovered.

If you want to search for solid companies with great earnings, check out this free list of companies with good balance sheets and impressive returns on equity.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.