Earnings Not Telling The Story For Churchill China plc (LON:CHH)

With a median price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of close to 15x in the United Kingdom, you could be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Churchill China plc's (LON:CHH) P/E ratio of 14.7x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/E without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.

With its earnings growth in positive territory compared to the declining earnings of most other companies, Churchill China has been doing quite well of late. It might be that many expect the strong earnings performance to deteriorate like the rest, which has kept the P/E from rising. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

View our latest analysis for Churchill China

Keen to find out how analysts think Churchill China's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

Does Growth Match The P/E?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the market for P/E ratios like Churchill China's to be considered reasonable.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew earnings per share by an impressive 20% last year. The strong recent performance means it was also able to grow EPS by 54% in total over the last three years. So we can start by confirming that the company has done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the one analyst covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 3.5% per year over the next three years. With the market predicted to deliver 11% growth per annum, the company is positioned for a weaker earnings result.

With this information, we find it interesting that Churchill China is trading at a fairly similar P/E to the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited growth expectations and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. These shareholders may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

The Final Word

While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

We've established that Churchill China currently trades on a higher than expected P/E since its forecast growth is lower than the wider market. When we see a weak earnings outlook with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/E lower. Unless these conditions improve, it's challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Churchill China (of which 1 is a bit unpleasant!) you should know about.

If P/E ratios interest you, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.