Stock Analysis

Alpha Financial Markets Consulting (LON:AFM) jumps 12% this week, though earnings growth is still tracking behind five-year shareholder returns

AIM:AFM
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When we invest, we're generally looking for stocks that outperform the market average. Buying under-rated businesses is one path to excess returns. For example, long term Alpha Financial Markets Consulting plc (LON:AFM) shareholders have enjoyed a 78% share price rise over the last half decade, well in excess of the market return of around 5.2% (not including dividends).

Since it's been a strong week for Alpha Financial Markets Consulting shareholders, let's have a look at trend of the longer term fundamentals.

Check out our latest analysis for Alpha Financial Markets Consulting

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During five years of share price growth, Alpha Financial Markets Consulting achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 15% per year. This EPS growth is higher than the 12% average annual increase in the share price. So one could conclude that the broader market has become more cautious towards the stock.

The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-per-share-growth
AIM:AFM Earnings Per Share Growth December 15th 2023

We know that Alpha Financial Markets Consulting has improved its bottom line over the last three years, but what does the future have in store? It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on how its financial position has changed over time.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Alpha Financial Markets Consulting the TSR over the last 5 years was 102%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

Investors in Alpha Financial Markets Consulting had a tough year, with a total loss of 12% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 3.1%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 15%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Even so, be aware that Alpha Financial Markets Consulting is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on British exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Alpha Financial Markets Consulting is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.