Vesuvius plc (LON:VSVS) Yearly Results Just Came Out: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

Shareholders might have noticed that Vesuvius plc (LON:VSVS) filed its annual result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.6% to UK£4.74 in the past week. Vesuvius reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of UK£1.9b and statutory earnings per share of UK£0.44, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Vesuvius

After the latest results, the eight analysts covering Vesuvius are now predicting revenues of UK£1.99b in 2024. If met, this would reflect a credible 3.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be UK£0.44, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of UK£2.00b and earnings per share (EPS) of UK£0.48 in 2024. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at UK£5.28, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Vesuvius at UK£6.75 per share, while the most bearish prices it at UK£3.85. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Vesuvius shareholders.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2024 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 3.2% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 3.8% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 4.4% per year. So it's pretty clear that Vesuvius is expected to grow slower than similar companies in the same industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Vesuvius. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Vesuvius' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Vesuvius going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Even so, be aware that Vesuvius is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.