What Does Grafton Group plc's (LON:GFTU) Share Price Indicate?

Grafton Group plc (LON:GFTU), is not the largest company out there, but it saw a decent share price growth in the teens level on the LSE over the last few months. As a mid-cap stock with high coverage by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company’s outlook is already priced into the stock. However, what if the stock is still a bargain? Let’s take a look at Grafton Group’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if the opportunity still exists.

See our latest analysis for Grafton Group

What's the opportunity in Grafton Group?

According to my price multiple model, which makes a comparison between the company's price-to-earnings ratio and the industry average, the stock price seems to be justfied. In this instance, I’ve used the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio given that there is not enough information to reliably forecast the stock’s cash flows. I find that Grafton Group’s ratio of 27.26x is trading slightly below its industry peers’ ratio of 29.47x, which means if you buy Grafton Group today, you’d be paying a decent price for it. And if you believe Grafton Group should be trading in this range, then there isn’t much room for the share price to grow beyond the levels of other industry peers over the long-term. So, is there another chance to buy low in the future? Given that Grafton Group’s share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us an opportunity to buy later on. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.

Can we expect growth from Grafton Group?

Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. With profit expected to grow by 67% over the next couple of years, the future seems bright for Grafton Group. It looks like higher cash flow is on the cards for the stock, which should feed into a higher share valuation.

What this means for you:

Are you a shareholder? GFTU’s optimistic future growth appears to have been factored into the current share price, with shares trading around industry price multiples. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the financial strength of the company. Have these factors changed since the last time you looked at GFTU? Will you have enough conviction to buy should the price fluctuate below the industry PE ratio?

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on GFTU, now may not be the most optimal time to buy, given it is trading around industry price multiples. However, the optimistic forecast is encouraging for GFTU, which means it’s worth further examining other factors such as the strength of its balance sheet, in order to take advantage of the next price drop.

Keep in mind, when it comes to analysing a stock it's worth noting the risks involved. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for Grafton Group you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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