Is Now An Opportune Moment To Examine Grafton Group plc (LON:GFTU)?

While Grafton Group plc (LON:GFTU) might not be the most widely known stock at the moment, it received a lot of attention from a substantial price movement on the LSE over the last few months, increasing to UK£10.84 at one point, and dropping to the lows of UK£8.73. Some share price movements can give investors a better opportunity to enter into the stock, and potentially buy at a lower price. A question to answer is whether Grafton Group's current trading price of UK£9.25 reflective of the actual value of the mid-cap? Or is it currently undervalued, providing us with the opportunity to buy? Let’s take a look at Grafton Group’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change.

View our latest analysis for Grafton Group

Is Grafton Group still cheap?

The stock seems fairly valued at the moment according to my valuation model. It’s trading around 4.0% below my intrinsic value, which means if you buy Grafton Group today, you’d be paying a fair price for it. And if you believe that the stock is really worth £9.63, then there’s not much of an upside to gain from mispricing. So, is there another chance to buy low in the future? Given that Grafton Group’s share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us an opportunity to buy later on. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.

Can we expect growth from Grafton Group?

Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. Though in the case of Grafton Group, it is expected to deliver a negative earnings growth of -9.5%, which doesn’t help build up its investment thesis. It appears that risk of future uncertainty is high, at least in the near term.

What this means for you:

Are you a shareholder? Currently, GFTU appears to be trading around its fair value, but given the uncertainty from negative returns in the future, this could be the right time to de-risk your portfolio. Is your current exposure to the stock optimal for your total portfolio? And is the opportunity cost of holding a negative-outlook stock too high? Before you make a decision on the stock, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on GFTU for a while, now may not be the most advantageous time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. The price seems to be trading at fair value, which means there’s less benefit from mispricing. Furthermore, the negative growth outlook increases the risk of holding the stock. However, there are also other important factors we haven’t considered today, which can help crystalize your views on GFTU should the price fluctuate below its true value.

If you want to dive deeper into Grafton Group, you'd also look into what risks it is currently facing. While conducting our analysis, we found that Grafton Group has 1 warning sign and it would be unwise to ignore it.

If you are no longer interested in Grafton Group, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.