Bunzl plc (LON:BNZL) Just Reported Full-Year Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?

Shareholders might have noticed that Bunzl plc (LON:BNZL) filed its full-year result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.1% to UK£31.85 in the past week. Bunzl reported UK£12b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of UK£1.56 beat expectations, being 2.7% higher than what the analysts expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Bunzl

Following last week's earnings report, Bunzl's 15 analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be UK£11.9b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be UK£1.55, roughly flat on the last 12 months. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of UK£12.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of UK£1.54 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at UK£31.05. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Bunzl analyst has a price target of UK£37.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at UK£25.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Bunzl shareholders.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Bunzl's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Bunzl's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 0.8% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 6.6% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 2.5% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Bunzl is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Bunzl going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It might also be worth considering whether Bunzl's debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.