Analyst Estimates: Here's What Brokers Think Of Ashtead Group plc (LON:AHT) After Its Annual Report

Investors in Ashtead Group plc (LON:AHT) had a good week, as its shares rose 3.2% to close at UK£44.76 following the release of its full-year results. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of US$11b and statutory earnings per share of US$3.39 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that Ashtead Group is executing in line with expectations. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Ashtead Group from 16 analysts is for revenues of US$11.2b in 2026. If met, it would imply a modest 3.8% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to accumulate 4.1% to US$3.65. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$11.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.70 in 2026. The consensus seems maybe a little more pessimistic, trimming their revenue forecasts after the latest results even though there was no change to its EPS estimates.

View our latest analysis for Ashtead Group

The consensus has reconfirmed its price target of UK£55.77, showing that the analysts don't expect weaker revenue expectations next year to have a material impact on Ashtead Group's market value. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Ashtead Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at UK£70.00 and the most bearish at UK£36.50 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Ashtead Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 3.8% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 13% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this to the 24 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.6% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Ashtead Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. They also downgraded their revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. With that said, earnings are more important to the long-term value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Ashtead Group. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Ashtead Group going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Ashtead Group .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.