Ashtead Group plc

LSE:AHT Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£22.0b

Ashtead Group Valuation

Is AHT undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AHT when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AHT (£50.3) is trading above our estimate of fair value (£37.01)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AHT is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AHT?

Key metric: As AHT is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for AHT. This is calculated by dividing AHT's market cap by their current earnings.
What is AHT's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio17.9x
EarningsUS$1.55b
Market CapUS$27.62b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AHT's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for AHT vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average25.7x
BNZL Bunzl
22.2x7.1%UK£10.8b
DPLM Diploma
44.6x14.7%UK£5.8b
HWDN Howden Joinery Group
17.1x6.0%UK£4.3b
RS1 RS Group
19x16.5%UK£3.2b
AHT Ashtead Group
17.9x1.8%UK£22.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AHT is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.9x) compared to the peer average (25.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AHT's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Trade Distributors Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
AHT 17.9xIndustry Avg. 13.8xNo. of Companies10PE01020304050+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AHT is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.9x) compared to the European Trade Distributors industry average (13.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AHT's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AHT PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio17.9x
Fair PE Ratio21.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AHT is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AHT forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£50.30
UK£64.10
+27.4%
11.0%UK£80.00UK£45.50n/a19
Dec ’25UK£62.90
UK£64.20
+2.1%
11.8%UK£80.00UK£48.50n/a19
Nov ’25UK£58.42
UK£63.39
+8.5%
11.9%UK£80.00UK£48.50n/a19
Oct ’25UK£57.80
UK£63.07
+9.1%
12.3%UK£80.00UK£48.50n/a19
Sep ’25UK£53.98
UK£62.40
+15.6%
12.1%UK£84.00UK£48.00n/a18
Aug ’25UK£54.58
UK£62.40
+14.3%
12.1%UK£84.00UK£48.00n/a18
Jul ’25UK£52.18
UK£62.68
+20.1%
11.6%UK£82.00UK£48.00n/a19
Jun ’25UK£56.88
UK£63.00
+10.8%
9.6%UK£74.00UK£50.50n/a20
May ’25UK£56.74
UK£62.31
+9.8%
9.1%UK£74.00UK£50.50n/a20
Apr ’25UK£56.40
UK£60.48
+7.2%
11.8%UK£74.00UK£45.50n/a20
Mar ’25UK£57.22
UK£60.60
+5.9%
13.9%UK£82.00UK£45.50n/a20
Feb ’25UK£52.48
UK£60.54
+15.4%
14.1%UK£82.00UK£45.50n/a20
Jan ’25UK£54.62
UK£60.81
+11.3%
13.6%UK£82.00UK£45.50n/a19
Dec ’24UK£49.01
UK£61.19
+24.9%
15.7%UK£92.00UK£48.50UK£62.9018
Nov ’24UK£47.24
UK£65.56
+38.8%
15.1%UK£94.00UK£43.50UK£58.4218
Oct ’24UK£50.02
UK£64.79
+29.5%
15.7%UK£94.00UK£43.50UK£57.8019
Sep ’24UK£55.46
UK£64.82
+16.9%
17.4%UK£102.00UK£43.50UK£53.9819
Aug ’24UK£57.12
UK£64.73
+13.3%
17.9%UK£102.00UK£43.50UK£54.5818
Jul ’24UK£54.44
UK£64.36
+18.2%
15.9%UK£94.00UK£43.50UK£52.1818
Jun ’24UK£49.49
UK£63.12
+27.5%
15.8%UK£94.00UK£43.50UK£56.8820
May ’24UK£45.77
UK£63.02
+37.7%
16.3%UK£94.00UK£43.50UK£56.7419
Apr ’24UK£49.58
UK£62.80
+26.7%
16.7%UK£94.00UK£43.50UK£56.4018
Mar ’24UK£55.60
UK£60.57
+8.9%
18.1%UK£95.00UK£43.50UK£57.2218
Feb ’24UK£53.60
UK£60.26
+12.4%
18.3%UK£95.00UK£43.50UK£52.4818
Jan ’24UK£47.20
UK£60.15
+27.4%
18.3%UK£95.00UK£43.50UK£54.6218
Dec ’23UK£50.86
UK£56.76
+11.6%
21.1%UK£95.00UK£40.00UK£49.0118

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/23 04:25
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/10/31
Annual Earnings2024/04/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Ashtead Group plc is covered by 45 analysts. 18 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Geoff AllumArden Partners Plc.
Jane SparrowBarclays
James RosenthalBarclays