X-FAB Silicon Foundries SE Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For This Year

Shareholders might have noticed that X-FAB Silicon Foundries SE (EPA:XFAB) filed its half-yearly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.1% to €5.92 in the past week. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$421m were what the analysts expected, X-FAB Silicon Foundries surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of US$0.15 per share, an impressive 36% above what was forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for X-FAB Silicon Foundries

Following last week's earnings report, X-FAB Silicon Foundries' six analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be US$887.1m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to decline 19% to US$0.76 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$917.6m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.86 in 2024. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a real cut to earnings per share numbers.

It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 13% to €7.87. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on X-FAB Silicon Foundries, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €10.32 and the most bearish at €6.00 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 1.3% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 14% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 7.4% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - X-FAB Silicon Foundries is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for X-FAB Silicon Foundries. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of X-FAB Silicon Foundries' future valuation.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple X-FAB Silicon Foundries analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for X-FAB Silicon Foundries that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com