Carmila (ENXTPA:CARM): Valuation in Focus as Debt Profile and Balance Sheet Are Optimized

Carmila (ENXTPA:CARM) has announced the launch of a tender offer targeting several existing notes. The company also plans to issue new Euro-denominated fixed rate notes. This move aims to extend its debt maturity profile and optimize balance sheet structure.

See our latest analysis for Carmila.

Against the backdrop of Carmila’s latest move to shore up its balance sheet, the share price has shown steady, albeit modest, progress with a year-to-date return of nearly 6.8%. Looking at the bigger picture, total shareholder returns have outpaced price gains. Over three years, total returns were more than 60%, and over five years, returns topped 228%. This suggests that investors focused on the long term have seen strong value steadily emerge as the company manages its finances proactively.

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With Carmila trading at nearly a 20% discount to analyst price targets and an even wider gap to estimated intrinsic value, the key question becomes: Is this a rare buying opportunity, or is the market already factoring in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 16.5% Undervalued

With Carmila’s fair value set nearly €3.50 higher than its recent closing price, the narrative sees considerable upside potential for patient investors, even amid projections of declining revenue. This upbeat perspective sets up a debate over whether the market is being too bearish, especially as Carmila transforms its business model and targets new growth avenues.

The increasing appeal of physical shopping venues as social and experiential destinations is directly supporting Carmila's strong leasing momentum (467 new leases signed, significant footfall growth, introduction of experience-led retailers and pop-up concepts). This should drive higher rental income and recurring earnings in the coming years.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know the quantitative spark that could fuel this upside? The calculation depends on Carmila pumping up margins and achieving a future earnings multiple that is rarely seen in retail REITs. Uncover which bold projections and turnaround assumptions drive this contrarian fair value and see what numbers really underpin this optimistic view.

Result: Fair Value of €20.7 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent growth in e-commerce or a downturn in Carmila's main regions could undermine foot traffic and put pressure on future rental income.

Find out about the key risks to this Carmila narrative.

Build Your Own Carmila Narrative

If you’d rather take a hands-on approach and draw your own conclusions from Carmila’s numbers, you can easily craft your own view in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Carmila research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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