Cegedim SA Reported A Surprise Loss, And Analysts Have Updated Their Forecasts

Shareholders might have noticed that Cegedim SA (EPA:CGM) filed its full-year result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.1% to €12.55 in the past week. Revenues came in at €654m, in line with estimates, while Cegedim reported a statutory loss of €1.10 per share, well short of prior analyst forecasts for a profit. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Following the latest results, Cegedim's dual analysts are now forecasting revenues of €678.9m in 2025. This would be a modest 3.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Cegedim forecast to report a statutory profit of €1.30 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €683.4m and earnings per share (EPS) of €1.53 in 2025. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the real cut to new EPS forecasts.

View our latest analysis for Cegedim

The consensus price target held steady at €14.67, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Cegedim's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Cegedim's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 3.7% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 6.2% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 11% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Cegedim is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have analyst estimates for Cegedim going out as far as 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Cegedim , and understanding this should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.