TotalEnergies SE Just Missed EPS By 23%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

TotalEnergies SE (EPA:TTE) came out with its second-quarter results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. Revenue of US$49b surpassed estimates by 6.1%, although statutory earnings per share missed badly, coming in 23% below expectations at US$1.60 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for TotalEnergies

Following last week's earnings report, TotalEnergies' 21 analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be US$213.3b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be US$9.26, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$213.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$9.85 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

The consensus price target held steady at €73.54, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on TotalEnergies, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €99.01 and the most bearish at €64.98 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that TotalEnergies' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 3.0% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 10% over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue shrink 0.8% per year. So it's clear that despite the slowdown in growth, TotalEnergies is still expected to grow meaningfully faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Their estimates also suggest that TotalEnergies' revenue is expected to perform better than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple TotalEnergies analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for TotalEnergies you should be aware of, and 1 of them shouldn't be ignored.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com