The main aim of stock picking is to find the market-beating stocks. But even the best stock picker will only win with some selections. So we wouldn't blame long term Bouygues SA (EPA:EN) shareholders for doubting their decision to hold, with the stock down 34% over a half decade. And we doubt long term believers are the only worried holders, since the stock price has declined 26% over the last twelve months. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 12% in the last three months.
Given the past week has been tough on shareholders, let's investigate the fundamentals and see what we can learn.
Before we look at the performance, you might like to know that our analysis indicates that EN is potentially undervalued!
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
Looking back five years, both Bouygues' share price and EPS declined; the latter at a rate of 4.0% per year. This reduction in EPS is less than the 8% annual reduction in the share price. This implies that the market was previously too optimistic about the stock. The less favorable sentiment is reflected in its current P/E ratio of 11.71.
The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
Dive deeper into Bouygues' key metrics by checking this interactive graph of Bouygues's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Bouygues, it has a TSR of -15% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
We regret to report that Bouygues shareholders are down 21% for the year (even including dividends). Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 12%. However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 3% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Bouygues you should be aware of.
If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on FR exchanges.
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Find out whether Bouygues is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.View the Free Analysis
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Bouygues SA, together with its subsidiaries, operates in the construction, telecom, and media sectors in France and internationally.
The Snowflake is a visual investment summary with the score of each axis being calculated by 6 checks in 5 areas.
|Analysis Area||Score (0-6)|
Read more about these checks in the individual report sections or in our analysis model.
Flawless balance sheet established dividend payer.