BNP Paribas (ENXTPA:BNP): Revisiting Valuation After a 40% One-Year Share Price Climb

BNP Paribas (ENXTPA:BNP) has been quietly grinding higher, with the stock up roughly 14% over the past month and more than 40% over the past year, inviting a closer look at what investors are pricing in.

See our latest analysis for BNP Paribas.

The recent climb in BNP Paribas’ share price, now at $75.39, comes after a stretch of solid execution and improving sentiment toward European banks, with a 1 year total shareholder return of 41.66% pointing to building momentum rather than a one off bounce.

If BNP Paribas’ run has you thinking about what else might be gaining traction, this could be a good moment to explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

Yet even after this strong run, and with shares still trading at a discount to analyst targets and intrinsic value estimates, the key question remains: is BNP Paribas still mispriced, or is the market already baking in the next leg of growth?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 14.6% Undervalued

With BNP Paribas last closing at €75.39 against a narrative fair value in the high €80s, the valuation story rests heavily on future growth and efficiency gains.

The integration of AXA IM and HSBC WM Germany, alongside ongoing expansion in high-growth markets (notably Turkey and Poland), is set to significantly broaden BNP Paribas's distribution network and wealth management capabilities, directly increasing fee-based revenue and supporting long-term earnings growth through enhanced client acquisition and cross-selling opportunities.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what earnings path and profit margins have to look like for this upside to hold, and which future valuation multiple underpins it? Read the complete narrative.

Result: Fair Value of €88.31 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, execution missteps on cost reductions or tougher Eurozone regulation could constrain margins and capital returns and undermine the upside case embedded in today’s valuation.

Find out about the key risks to this BNP Paribas narrative.

Build Your Own BNP Paribas Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to dig into the drivers yourself, you can build a tailored view in just minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your BNP Paribas research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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