Forvia SE Reported A Surprise Loss, And Analysts Have Updated Their Forecasts

There's been a major selloff in Forvia SE (EPA:FRVIA) shares in the week since it released its yearly report, with the stock down 33% to €7.43. Revenues came in at €27b, in line with estimates, while Forvia reported a statutory loss of €0.94 per share, well short of prior analyst forecasts for a profit. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Forvia

Following the latest results, Forvia's eleven analysts are now forecasting revenues of €27.6b in 2025. This would be a credible 2.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €27.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of €1.89 in 2025. So we can see that while the consensus made no real change to its revenue estimates, it also no longer provides an earnings per share estimate. This suggests that revenues are what the market is focusing on after the latest results.

We'd also point out that thatthe analysts have made no major changes to their price target of €13.98. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Forvia, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €39.00 and the most bearish at €9.00 per share. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Forvia's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 2.2% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 15% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.6% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Forvia.

The Bottom Line

The clear take away from these updates is that the analysts made no change to their revenue estimates for next year, with the business apparently performing in line with their models. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €13.98, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

We have estimates for Forvia from its eleven analysts out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Forvia you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.