€13.06 - That's What Analysts Think Forvia SE (EPA:FRVIA) Is Worth After These Results

It's been a pretty great week for Forvia SE (EPA:FRVIA) shareholders, with its shares surging 11% to €11.21 in the week since its latest interim results. Revenues were in line with expectations, at €13b, while statutory losses ballooned to €1.37 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Forvia after the latest results.

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Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from twelve analysts covering Forvia is for revenues of €26.3b in 2025. This implies a perceptible 2.2% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Forvia forecast to report a statutory profit of €0.32 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €26.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.89 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a large cut to EPS estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for Forvia

Althoughthe analysts have revised their earnings forecasts for next year, they've also lifted the consensus price target 13% to €13.06, suggesting the revised estimates are not indicative of a weaker long-term future for the business. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Forvia at €39.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €7.30. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 4.3% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 15% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 2.8% per year. It's pretty clear that Forvia's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Forvia's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Forvia going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Forvia (1 doesn't sit too well with us!) that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.